The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported that the inflation of January 2025 was in 2.2%the lowest level in five years and below the estimates of private analysts, which projected 23%. While the data marks a clear advance in the fight against inflation, The impact on household economy is still limitedas explained by the economist Fausto Spotorno.
Spotoral analyzed the factors behind the inflationary deceleration and the challenges that still persist. According to your vision, Inflation is going down, but the feeling of economic pressure is still present Due to a phenomenon of rear -price rearrangement and lag in the recovery of wages.
“The prices that had been behind are those that are climbing faster,” said Spotorno. This is because For years, many rates and services were frozengenerating a gap with the rest of the economy. Now, with the adjustment of relative prices, items such as Electricity, Gas, Transport and Public Services They are registering increases higher than average.
This rearrangement process makes, although general inflation falls, certain sectors continue to feel the pressure increase pressure.
“If today they show us a graph with the prices that rose the most between 2019 and 2023, we will see that they are the least uploading,” he explained. This responds to the logic that the items that increased uncontrollably in recent years now show stability, while those who were lagging behind are in an update process.
The double effect: monetary adjustment and change in relative prices
Spotorno explained that The decline in inflation responds to two main factors: the monetary adjustment and the Relative price rear.
“They are like the two or three final kilos of a diet, which are the ones that costs the most to go down,” the economist graph. Reducing inflation from 10% to 5% monthly was a challenge, but getting from 5% to 2% and stabilizing 1% will be even more difficult.
“Not only have to lower calorie consumption (money emission), but you also have to exercise (adjust relative prices), and that generates more effort,” SpoTorno explained.
Low inflation, but prices do not: the feeling of “everything is expensive”
One of the key points that Spotorno stood out is that lower inflation does not mean that prices fall, but that they rise at lower speed.
“Low inflation does not mean that prices fall. They continue to increase, only slower,” he said. This explains why many homes still feel that prices are high Despite the deceleration of the general index.
“We can continue to feel that some prices are expensive because, in relative terms, certain products or services continue to adjust,” he added.
In addition, improvement in salaries It is not immediatewhich aggravates the feeling of economic pressure in homes.
“Salaries in general are accommodating over inflation, but the adjustment is a little late,” he explained.
The sectors most affected by this situation are Independent and Informal Workersthat have more difficulty to update their income to the rhythm of prices.
The impact on consumption: how families are rearrangeing their expenses
The change in relative prices is forcing many families to reorganize its expense structure.
“If you used to destined a third of your salary to the supermarket and 10% to public services, now that 10% can become 20%,” he explained.
This readjustment in home expenses generates tensions In the short term, but it is a process that will eventually stabilize.
“Until all relative prices are accommodated, families are going to feel the impact and will have to make adjustments in their daily consumption,” Spotizano warned.
When will you really feel the loss of inflation in homes?
Despite the current difficulties, the economist showed optimistic about the future And he stressed that, once the price rearrangement process is finished, The feeling of relief in homes will be more evident.
“Once the expense structure is accommodated, economic growth will allow the situation to improve sustainably,” he said.
For Spotorno, The key to the current process is the credibility of the economic program. If the government manages to sustain stability and guarantee clear rules in monetary and fiscal matters, Improvements in salaries and purchasing power will begin to feel stronger.
“When you have irrational prices, nobody invests in key sectors such as energy or transport. But when prices are more realistic, investments return and that generates growth and employment,” he explained.
Conclusion: inflation yields, but the impact still feels in pockets
While inflation has dropped considerably and is projected to continue to slow down, Households still do not perceive real relief in their daily economy.
The rearrapping of rates and services, added to the lag in the recovery of wages, makes it The pressure sensation is still present in the short term.
However, If the government manages to consolidate economic stability and wages continue to adjust over inflation, improvement in purchasing power will be more palpable in the coming months.
The great challenge, according to Spotorno, will be get inflation to continue down without generating new imbalancesan objective that will require adjustments on several fronts and a well -defined economic strategy.
Source: Ambito
