Foreign trade: Germany’s most important trading partner with new tariffs

For the first time since 2015, the United States is again the most important trading partner in Germany – but how is it going on in business with the United States? Customs on steel and aluminum has already launched US President Donald Trump. Now the Republican threatens to significantly increase imports from cars to the USA. That could hit the already crousing German automotive industry hard.

The tariffs on the import of cars to the USA would “be near 25 percent,” said Trump when asked about a question at a press conference in his property Mar-A-Lago in the US state of Florida. On April 2, he wanted to comment more specifically. The surcharges would not be incurred if companies produced in the USA, said Trump. Asked for tariffs on medicines, the US President said similarly.

Customs as a burden on exporting Germany

“Due to the immense trade volume, these tariffs basically have the potential to weaken the European economy, this applies in particular to Germany,” analyzes Thomas Gitzel, chief economist of VP Bank. The tariffs would also make imports from Mexico, where large German automobile manufacturers have invested in partly gigantic factories in the past decades.

Despite a decline, motor vehicles and power car parts were the most important export product “Made in Germany” with a total value of EUR 262 billion (minus 4.0 percent), followed by machines (216.5 billion euros/minus 4.8 percent)) Chemical products (138.6 billion euros/minus 2.1 percent).

According to Sebastian Dullien, scientific director of the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Consolation Research (IMK) of the trade union Hans Böckler Foundation, an escalation of the trade conflict could lead to the German exports to the USA for the first time in 2025.

If there is even a global trade war, the German economy could shrink by more than one percent, and around 300,000 jobs could be lost in Germany, warns Dullien. This showed simulations of the IMK.

USA outsource China in ranking of trading partners

Last year, the United States was again in 1st place of Germany’s most important trading partners: According to the Federal Statistical Office, the volume of imports and exports in business with the United States totaled 252.8 billion euros.

The USA thus fled the USA (246.3 billion euros), which held the top position from 2016 to 2023. In 2024, the Netherlands with exports and imports worth 205.7 billion euros landed in 3rd place in Germany.

While there were slight growth in the USA in the United States (plus 0.1 percent), the trade with China decreased primarily because of the falling German exports (minus 3.1 percent).

The “aggressive industrial policy of the Asian Land” considers IMK researchers Dullien to be another central challenges for Germany: “The government in Beijing is trying to make domestic industries in those areas as part of the” Made in China 2025 “strategy, especially in those areas in which Germany was previously strong. ” This is supposed to do this more independently of imports, German industry loses market shares.

USA most important buyers for “made in Germany”

The most important individual market for goods “Made in Germany” have been the USA since 2015. Most German exports went to the United States last year: German companies sold there were worth 161.4 billion euros and thus 2.2 percent more than a year earlier. France (116.2 billion euros) was in second place in the most important buyers of German exports, followed by the Netherlands (110.5 billion).

Chinese products have dominated the imports to Germany since 2015: Although imports from China decreased slightly to 156.3 billion euros, China was by far the most important delivery country for Germany. The Netherlands (95.2 billion euros) and the United States (91.4 billion euros) follow in places 2 and 3 of the most important delivery countries.

Export surplus increased

Overall, Germany exported the latest information from the Wiesbaden Statisticians in 2024 with a total value of 1,556 billion euros and thus 1.2 percent less than a year earlier. Imports decreased even significantly by 3.0 percent to 1,316.9 billion euros. The export surplus rose to 239.1 billion euros, after EUR 217.7 billion a year earlier.

The order pad in the industry has become a little thicker

A little ray of hope: German industry went into the new year with a order pad. The price -adjusted inventory rose by 0.2 percent compared to the previous month, reports the Federal Statistical Office. Compared to December 2023, however, the value was 0.6 percent lower.

In particular, some large orders for other vehicle construction, which include aircraft, ships, trains or military vehicles, provided the slight upswing within the month. The order stock in mechanical engineering also increased. In contrast, losses had to be accepted. On average, the orders are now sufficient for 7.5 months according to the Federal Office’s calculations to utilize the companies.

Federal Statistical Office on Trade partners in Germany 2024 Federal Statistical Office for Foreign Trade Statistical Federal Office Industrial orders 12/2024