Despite the efforts of the ruling party for justifying the current level of the price of the dollar due to the sanitation of public accounts, delay symptoms are already evident. The dynamics of the index of Real multilateral change type (TCRM) of the BCRA, the record in cards with cards abroad and the results of the Big Mac Index They are some of them.
In this context, a report by the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank remarked Three factors that can tighten the appreciation of the exchange rate.
The first of these factors is that the amount of pesos is growing faster than reserves. Indeed, since June of last year The sum of the Public Pesos Current plus deposits in savings banks and private current accounts grew 55% measured to the CCL exchange rate. On the contrary, gross reserves fell 1.5%. “Thus, there are more liquid weights that could press on the dollar you reserve to answer,” said the aforementioned work.
“This has already happened at other times, and in part it is a necessary condition for the economy to recover. However, it does not stop reflecting that the monetary imbalance (Measured in terms of foreign exchange) it has been aggravated instead of moderating in recent months, “they deepened from the province.
- Imports erodes the BCRA coffers
In parallel, the analysis of the financial entity stressed that between June and January Imports grew 40%without considering seasonality, while reservations advanced 4% in the same period. Consequently, Meanwhile the reserves allowed to face 6.4 months of imports, now they only reach to cover 5.2 months.
Impo BPA.jfif reserves
It is worth remembering that last year the government progressively eradicated regulations on foreign trade, to which it added the elimination of the country tax. This, added to the stability of the official dollar, generates Incentives to replace local production with foreigners.
- Debt as a permanent pressure factor on the external sector
Finally, the province highlighted the U $ 6,400 million that between public and private sector they must face in debt payments in the remainder of the first semester, to which they are added US $ 12,500 million of the second semester. This shows that it is not only the current account that presses on the amount of dollars in the country, but also the capital account.
In five of the last seven days the reserves fell, although the BCRA bought currencies in the Mulc. Some debt payments were added to dollars used to contain the exchange gap.
In that framework, for the short term it will be key that the government support the dynamics of the private indebtedness To turn currencies in the central. Private estimates indicate that there would be a nearby remnant AU $ S4,000 million of reverse capacity.
If the economic team led by Luis Caputo manages to splices that remnant with the dollars of the thick harvestI could get air for at least half of the year. From there it will require other financing alternatives; In that framework, reach an agreement consisting with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) It is a necessary condition.
Source: Ambito
