Lower the surplus. The BCRA has already allocated US $21 billion to intervene in financial dollars since Javier Milei assumed. The IMF looks critically.
Winter is coming for the Government: Goodbye to the surplus, more intervention in the dollar, reservations and a country risk that rise fall in an expansive wave that is deepened, now, by the $ Libra-Gate.
The fundamental reason for this sequence that is still alive at this time must be sought in the need of the Casa Rosada to intervene in a pronounced way in the market of the Financial dollar (MEP and CCL) for prevent the gap with the officer from expanding. Other functions for reservations are knotted with the payment of debt – not this week – and the fall of the dollar deposits of which is recorded in corresponding lace.
So are the new coordinates they accuse receipt of the political crisis that the Government is going through. Not to doubt it, the procession is part of a series of questions that, for now, do not find an answer. Nonexistent gap vs. drop in reservations? Increase in imports vs. Loss of commercial balance? What kind of agreement can close the IMF with Argentina at a time of so much political vulnerability? Loan for impacting maturities in 2025?
50 dollar ticket
Wall Street, country risk and loss of reservations
To add some data. The country risk crossed ascending the 700 basic points and seems to begin to consolidate that brand as a floor. The possibility of refinancing part of debt maturities moves away and even impacts some emissions. In the last 48 hours, The government bought dollars at the Mulc and ended with a negative balance in reserves. Yesterday, for example, with the export dollar at $ 1,114, the Central Bank bought US $ 147 million in the Mulc, but at the end of the day it accused loss of reservations at US $ 43 million. The same happened on Tuesday: he added US $ 171 million in purchases, but the reservations fell US $ 341 million (IDB payment of US $ 70 million).
In the line, the gross reserves of the BCRA are located at US $ 28,361 million, The second lowest value since October last year. Looks? Wall Street projects that net reserves will remain negative although the IMF lends. JP Morgan said the BCRA would have allocated almost US $21,000 million to intervene in the financial dollar, dollar blend included. Another fact that alarm: from the arrival of Javier Milei to the presidency, the BCRA bought almost US $24,000 million from the export sector, but in its coffers only $ 8,000 million remained.
Bad news of the real economy
Winter approaches. The pressure has increased but the government is determined to endure anyway. The field seems to liquidate to droppers, but everything is used to mitigate the strong demand of the American ticket. The gap is supported around 15%. The news that comes from the real economy is not auspicious at all. Indec marked that wholesale inflation rose again in January, as it registered 1.5% monthly and 43.8% per year. On the other hand, the layoffs in general Motors and the consumption of meat, dairy and yerba mate – basic indicators of the basket – continue losing level and does not stop.
The fact is that the main source of dollars, the January commercial surplus, It was extremely modest and reflects a stepped setback. January exports were located at US $ 5,890 million and imports, US $ 5,748 million. And with these numbers, the January commercial surplus was only US $ 142 million, almost 82% less than in January 2024 and 91% below December 2024. Black Swan?
Source: Ambito
