The United States Chamber of Commerce in Argentina (AMCHAM) He published a report in which he analyzes the current foreign trade policy of the US administration and its potential impact on the Argentine economy.
According to the document accessed Scopesome of the key points addressed are the measures taken by the US in the context of its commercial dispute with China, the new tariffs and the possibility of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Argentina. Is it possible to close an agreement?
A review of the commercial relationship with China
One of the central axes of the current American commercial strategy has been the imposition of a 10% general tariff on Chinese products. While negotiations between the two countries continue, the application of this measure is already in force.
In contrast, the US suspended certain previously announced tariffs, such as 25% on Canada and Mexico products, as well as those on steel and aluminum, whose implementation is postponed until March.
The report of Amcham He stressed that China has reacted in moderation before these provisions, analyzing the potential impact on its economy. However, the Trump administration has also introduced a new variable in its strategy: Tariffs can be applied to finished products from other countries if they contain Chinese components in a significant percentage or if importing companies have Chinese capital.
The US administration strategy
According to Amchamthe Trump administration has adopted a strategy based on the imposition of initial conditions to negotiate from an advantage position. The priorities of this commercial policy include inflation control, tariff implementation and immigration control.
The support of public opinion also plays a fundamental role. According to the report, 60% of Americans believe that trade agreements have been harmful to the country, an opinion shared by 73% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats. In addition, 83% of respondents have a negative vision of China’s commercial policy and its influence on the US economy.
New tariffs and its possible impact on Argentina
Within the framework of its commercial strategy, the US announced the application of a 25% tariff on the importation of cars, chips and pharmaceutical products. In addition, a 25% tax on wood and forest products was added, which would go into force in April.
While these changes are mainly motivated by national security issues, Amcham He pointed out that the measures could be transitory and subject to negotiation. A key aspect is the implementation of the principle of reciprocity, although it has not yet been defined how it will be applied.
Likewise, tariffs are specifically aimed at countries with which the US maintains a commercial deficit, although Argentina is not included in the preliminary list of 10 priority countries.
The report also warns of possible delays in the implementation of these measures due to the lack of key designations in the State Department, the Ministry of Commerce and the US Commercial Representative Office (USTR). In addition, the World Trade Organization (WTO) does not seem to have the ability to stop these new tariff policies, which reinforces the need to closely monitor the evolution of the situation.
On the other hand, within the US government itself there are differences on the implementation of these measures. The AMCHAM suggests that the key negotiations and designations in the next three months will be decisive. Likewise, the US Congress, currently under republican control, will play a crucial role in the evolution of these policies.
Argentina and the possibility of a free trade agreement
One of the most relevant points for the Argentine economy is the possibility of accessing a Free Trade Agreement with the US, something that could also benefit Uruguay and Ecuador. According to AmchamArgentina is seen as a key partner in strategic sectors such as critical minerals and energy.
A significant fact is that the process for the signing of the FTA between the US and South Korea lasted just 11 months. This raises the possibility that Argentina can quickly advance in the concretion of a similar agreement, which could open new opportunities for the country’s economy.
In conclusion, the study stressed that only 10% of the tariffs announced by the US are currently in force. Although these measures have generated commercial tensions and could impact inflation in the US, the main argument of the administration has been national security, suggesting that it could be transitory decisions subject to negotiation.
The position of American public opinion has significantly influenced the justification of these policies, while the concepts of reciprocity and commercial balance introduced by the US are not precedents in their commercial history.
In this context, it was argued that Argentina must keep the negotiations attentive and explore the opportunities that could arise from a possible FTA with the USA.
Source: Ambito
