According to the communication “A” 8202 of the monetary authority, From now on banks can not only grant exporting financingbut also to companies and people who do not have the capacity to generate currencies. The condition is that the financial entity obtains the funds through the issuance of debt in the capital market (negotiable obligations) or credit lines from abroad, unable to touch people’s deposits.
Since June 2024, foreign currency indebtedness has been the main growth engine of reserves, thanks to money laundering. Since the containable capacity in this route has a limit, With the recent measure the government seeks to increase the number of potential beneficiaries of financing.
“As we mentioned repeatedly, The stock of dollars left the laundering is finite and was consumed in recent times. The deposits in dollars of the private sector fell US $ 4,126 million since the beginning of November, when the first stage of the laundering end, of a record stock of US $ 34,604 million au $ 30.478 million to 18/02 “, They stressed from Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI).
In the stock company they argued that Commercial loans to companies “could grow US $ 5,630 million Additional to reach the maximum ratio of documents/deposits in dollars from the private sector of the Macri era (2018), so the presentable capacity was significantly reduced from a potential rise of US $ 11,865 million in November “.
The sustainability of the “ironed dollar” will mark the compass of the credits
Since January 2024, the BCRA defended a exchange rate policy that generated a significant lag of the real exchange rate compared to that of the main commercial partners of Argentina. Because the official dollar is constantly advanced at a lower rate than inflation and “crawling peg” is lower than the return of investments in pesos, Incentives to take a loan in American currency are given.
The economist and researcher of Fundar, Emiliano Libman, he said in dialogue with scope that “credit in dollars is a business flow. While clarified that high rates can mean a lock, for the UBA and UNSAM teacher the key point will be in the competence of “credit in dollars vs credit in pesos”.
This opens the possibility that dollar credit becomes more attractive, “he deepened to see that lAt the rate of the loans in hard currency turned to pesos (that is, the rate plus the devaluation) may be more convenient than the rate of the lines in local currency.
Libman said this decision “is a Step towards the ‘endogenous dollarization‘or’ currency competition ‘, although he stressed that the primary objective is the accumulation of reserves, for the aforementioned objectives.
For its part, Federico González Roucoeconomist in the Empiria consultant and specialist in the real estate market, said that the measure may not be so relevant to personal loans, but for real estate or prison. Regarding the rate, he said that he will depend largely on the rate at which the banks place their ON and the cost of abroad loans, which “Without stocks they should compete with grape instruments (which currently have a rate of 7%).” “Today I imagine an annual rate of 10% (plus the devaluation of the period)”forecast.
According to the scope, the rates that banks for SMEs have today for currency loans with the endorsement of a reciprocal guarantee society (SGR) is very variable between the different financial entities. As an example, For a 12 -month loan, Santander charges 2.75%, BBVA 6%and Galicia 9.5%.
The cost of the rates has associated the Potential risk of a barefoot Since, in the face of a possible devaluation, who requested a loan in dollars but have income in pesos, they will have serious difficulties to face their obligations.
“The idea of boosting banks to borrow with ONS abroad to provide non -tradable sectors and thus increase reserves to It generates a central problem that is to strengthen the appreciation of real exchange rate, which today is in debate its sustainability“He warned in his X account Jorge CarreraDoctor of Economics.
Source: Ambito
