At the end of January, the Central Bank (BCRA) He validated a new decline in interest rates that worked as a prelude to reduce “Crawling Peg” at 1% monthly, in a search by the government to continue the process of disinflationwhich accelerated in the second semester of 2024. Faced with this, experts make their projections on what may happen with the three economic variables that most concentrate market attention: dollar, rate, and inflation.
With regard to price increase, The consultants warn that food, which have great weighting in the index and that they came quite stabilized, began to rise. Thus, from Facimex although they maintained Your monthly inflation projection in 2% For February, they assured that the panorama is not exempt from risks. On the other hand, the statistical drag of the IPC-OJF It is already at 1.8% monthly, which implies that with an inflation of 0.3% in the last week of the month, February would close around 1.9% monthly.
As for the rate, it should be noted that The BCRA Board of Directors decided on the last business day of January to reduce it from 32% to 29% (TNA), which is equivalent to 2.38% monthly. In addition, in a parallel movement, the rate charged to banks for short -term liquidity loans (active passes) also suffered a cut, from 36% to 33% annual nominal. The impact of this decline was immediate on the financial market both on virtual wallets, as well as in fixed deadlines.
Finally, in February the “Crawling Peg” The official dollar was reduced from 2% monthly to 1%. In that framework, The illegal ticket ended January at $ 1,220 and, with the current contribution of $ 1,240, It is headed to close the month with a advance of 1.6%.
As for the other types of parallel changes: the MEP The first month of the year ended at $ 1,164.69 and is now located at $ 1,210.15, a 3.9%rise, while the CCL It closed at $ 1,185.97 and is headed to end at 1,212.62, an increase of 2.3%.
Dollar vs. Vs. Inflation: What will bring March
For the economist Federico Glustein, February inflation is probably higher than January, so in March there would be a higher floor. “With the classic seasonal increases it is likely that March will continue above 2% and April can approach those limits,” he told Scope.
Regarding the rate, he clarified that for him, “The market is asking for higher rate to avoid dollar migration Thinking about the movements of the American and Brazilian rate, but in my opinion, in electoral year, The government intends a decrease to motorize consumption and I think that in the short term, we will have an effect in that regard“
Finally, with respect to dollarpredicted that “a currency income for the thick harvest very notorious for March is expected, so it is likely that market tensions loosen although consequently it is likely that there is demand for foreign exchange for recovery and purchase of capital that Do not download the CCL and MEP and keep it in a range of $ 1180/$ 1240“
“I see it in the short term very calm to the dollarit seems to me that there should not be a great volatility, and that the government, within everything, has managed to calm it. I think it is important to see what is The evolution of inflation these days, especially this month particularly that can be a little higher than it had been, “he told him to Scope The economist Joel Lupieri.
In this regard, he said that You have to see if there is a reaction or not at the interest rate of the Central Bank. “If the interest rate is maintained, it seems to me that the dollar should stay. I believe that the interest rate, in this case, will also remain quite still due to this potential increase in inflation and inflation, particularly driven by the For food, “he closed.
Source: Ambito
