Difficult to imagine a soon agreement with the IMF plus disbursements, without modifying the current exchange scheme towards a flotation administered before the elections. Two scenarios for 2026. The impact of $ Libra and Lijo.
Encounters and visits from abroad intensified for the real start of the year in the previous carnival recess, very framed, or dyed from the $ LIBRA scandal and now called judicial “mamarracho” linked to Lijo. For what was heard in these meetings and their subsequent “brainstorming” They comment at the tables that public opinion seems to look the other way, above all, the one that voted or supports the libertarian government. As long as deflation continues and there is Kirchnerism, these things do not influence. However, an insightful political analyst warned a very heterogeneous auditorium than in The case of $ Libra It could be, but in the Luk Not so much, so the government would be underestimating that what Kirchnerism did in the institutional aspect made a dent in society and that in the end passes electoral invoice. In that sense, he was cautious for The judicial dynamics of the $ LIBRA case, above all, abroad, and in particular in the US, which could also impact Argentine justice. Something similar, it was perceived in the most financial matches and zooms where managers and investors, as long as they follow the party are a blind eye. Of course, a long -lived man on the market warned his peers that they should not expect any investment avalanche until the stocks are lifted: Today everything is short term and “Carry Trade”. They take that into account abroad that they hope to see the outcome of negotiation with the IMF, to see the fate of the stocks, which would enable Argentina to return to the emerging clubfor global funds. Once these circumstances occur, then, there can be thought in the long term and in large silver. Nothing new. In the interim, Davos, $ Libra, Lijo and other herbs that injected noise into investment decision making.
It is true that at the international level the party is played elsewhere, where all are more concerned with Trump’s movements, the effects of the German electoral result, the possible peace in Ukraine, than in alleged libertarian mischief of the Argentine presidential environment. In a gastronomic meeting in the north, several managers and representatives of international funds discussed the vernacular juncture. There was a certain respite after the last tender of the treasure that recovered levels of “rollover” of more than 100% (which allowed Don Quirno to carry more than $ 1.7 billion to the account in the BCRA, which according to private estimates were around $ 3 billion) and resulted in, after five months, the treasury closed the month with a positive balance, everything in return, of a small care of the toto via better rates. The next appointment, well after Carnival (12) when more than $ 4.5 billion expires. What they see, in broad strokes, is that Milei’s political flow is based on the collapse of the monthly inflation rate and the rebound of the activity level. It is despite the succession of non -forced errors, outburst in social networks and the phenomenon of guillotine to officials, it is still preferred by almost half of society in the face of fear of going back in a context of enormous fragmentation of the opposition.
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A political scientist contributed the data that the $ Libra case meant, so far, a jump of about 10 points in the negative image retaining the percentage of the positive. As one of the most listened to the City recalls, the surveys are one of the four things that the market looks closely at the over -operated fiscal numbers, the purchase of dollars of the BCRA and the descending nominality with stocks, 1% crawl and intervention in the exchange gap around 15%. It is celebrated that the economic team crossed the desert of the Volunteer Markets of International Debt for more than 14 months and yet fulfilled all its commitments. It was commented there, in reference to the IMF, that surely the technicians of the funds asked Caputo a less rigid exchange scheme, which is disarming the scaffolding of the stocks, such as, for example, for example, for example, A flexible exchange rate between meager bands where the BCRA buys dollars in the lower one and sells in the upper. This goes in line with what rescued the Bafa’s Paper market that this scheme requires a higher official dollar to recover the current account surplus, essential to eliminate the Blend dollar, and higher interest rates.
Two scenarios for 2026
The consensus of the diners gathered there is that it is difficult to imagine a soon agreement with the IMF plus disbursements, without modifying the current exchange scheme towards a flotation administered before the elections. Today, two scenarios glimpse by 2026, everything will depend on the interaction between politics, financial and real economy, the result of the elections and decisions that are adopted later. In the light of the current level of country risk and the interventions of the BCRA in the CCL, despite inflationary achievements and reactivation, even the pending subject is to “see” a growth program, where investment, key to this, remains in pause in the absence of the lack of definitions on the exchange rate and political risks. There were several comments on the global vision of the people of Stonex: Bond market volatility is a real risk, but it is not a political chaos, as some maintain; The increase in the yields of the US Treasury bonds indicates the end of excess world savings, which pushes investors to rethink the positioning.
On the other hand, the commercial war threat is real, but it has more to do with the assets of financial markets than with inflation; S&P 500 multinationals face winds against the strength of the dollar and tariffs (2018 showed what happens: a similar reaction must be expected if protectionism intensifies). So, What is the real risk?: The overheating of the US economyif the deficit triggers, the impact on variable income could be worse than tariffs, a yield of 5.5% -6% to 10 years would force a significant market correction. On the other hand, the risk of concentration in technology is increasing, therefore, you have to protect profits, and look at defensive plays (medical care, public services and basic products) or cover with protection options. Today, according to Stonex, investors continue to chase the “Next Mag 7”but those positioned only in the high -flight markets are at risk of being trapped if the rates remain higher for a longer time. In summary: stay diversified, protect yourself where necessary and closely observe the fiscal trajectory. Also commented on the first private meeting of Circles 2025, organized by a well -known ALYC, where more than 150 members and guests participated.
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Gossip, data and readings of the situation in the analysis of young traders
A group of young traders, related to international banks, were held in a boutique hotel where some gossip, data and readings of the situation emerged. They said that Milei’s meeting with the head of the IDB, the Brazilian Ilan Goldfajn, who was regulated by a photo of the last world football champion, was good since the banker pondered the potential of Argentina against the global challenges linked to the food and mining theme. Apparently, The former Brazilian central banker and former Itau Unibanco promised to collaborate via the IDB Invest, The bank’s arm for the private sector, supporting the implementation of reforms.
On the tender of treasure they considered that it was prioritized to achieve net financing to rebuild liquidity, hence the offer of short instruments, looking for volume instead of privileging a decline in interest rates. Due to the result they believe in the first part of March there may be less surplus liquidity (the banks had raised their Lefi position). They glimpse less liquidity, lower nominal decrease in rates and therefore higher real rates. Before the lack of new triggers, the boneros, prioritize the most conservative options, such as, among the shortest the GD29 and GD30, and even the Bopreal.
The people of Ashmore circulated that anticipate that they anticipate that Qatar and Kuwait will be eliminated from the EMBI GD between March and April of this year, and Latam will be the one with the greatest weight. From the flow of funds and investments, they saw that in the last days the tendency to “Carry” lowered, in the region there were slight purchases of Mexican and Chilean weight and slight sales of reais and Peruvian weights. While for fixed income, moderate purchases from Mexico were recorded with slight purchases from Argentina; Light sales from Brazil and Chile. About the bond market, they commented a lot about the meeting organized by the IIF on the so -called return of the bond watchers, where he was alerted to a new world debt record of US $318 billion, where Hannah Dimpker (Fitch), Drausio Giacomelli (Deutsche), Magdalena Polan (PGIM) and Ben Ramsey de JP Morgan. One of the guests recommended following the topic of clean file in Brazil, which brings tail for the proposed changes.
Source: Ambito
