After the slowdown recorded in January, February inflation could be located above the previous month due to the pressure exerted by the field of non -alcoholic food and drinks. According to estimates from various consultants, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) It could be between 1.9% and 2.7%.
According to INDEC data, January inflation was 2.2%, the lowest monthly variation since July 2020, carrying year -on -year inflation to 84.5%. In December, the monthly figure had been 2.7%, closing 2024 with an accumulated of 117.8%.
Food, the item that most pressed
Food were the main pressure factor on February inflation. According to C&T, the item increased by 3.3% in the month, driven by the rise in the meat and, to a lesser extent, fruits. However, towards the end of the month the rhythm of increase was reduced.
For its part, Eco Go reported that food inflation accelerated in the third week of February, with an increase of 1.2%. For the last week, they projected a 0.5% increase, which would carry food inflation inside the 4% monthly home. Adding the consumption outside the home (3.3%), the total figure would amount to 3.8%.
According to the index prepared by the LCG consultant, in the fourth week of February food prices maintained some stability. However, due to the rise in the previous weeks, the monthly average increase exceeded 3%, something that It did not happen since the fifth of July last year.
What to wait for March inflation
March usually presents inflation superior to that of February due to seasonal factors, and the drag of the month that has just concluded.
A certain relieved prices pressure could reach the meat side, and because of the continuity of the less accelerated devaluation, with the 1% monthly crawling.
The entry of imported products at a lower price to compete with nationals is another of the bets of the Government of Javier Milei.
In general, consultants perceive that in the coming months inflation will remain about 2% monthly.
The Finance Research Center (CIF) of the Torcuato Di Tella Business School reflected that Inflation expectations for the next 12 months advanced from 41.2% to 41.6%on average. It was thus the first upward movement in eight months.
In this context, it would not be surprising that monthly inflation drills 2% in February. To the mentioned impulse of the flesh are added other items that press to interrupt the disinflation path; Such are the cases of the education division, within the framework of the start of classes, and health.
Even so, there are private entities, such as the Freedom and Progress Foundation, Fmya or Cyt associated, which foresee an IPC below 2%.
Source: Ambito
