The Market operators They are relatively quiet about what will happen to the economy in 2025, although They glimpse “cracks” in the pillars that support the scaffolding of the model chosen by the government to stabilize prices.
One of the foundations that for the Executive is untouchablethe fiscal surplus can deteriorate this year If the following months are maintained dynamic that was seen in January. That month el Primary surplus was 0.30% of GDP while the financial one was 0.07% of GDP, with a slight deterioration of 0.02 points compared to the same period of 2024.
Fiscal surplus: analysts see “cracks” in the government model
According to estimates of Cohen Argentina, If the behavior of expenses and income is the same in the next 11 months the annual result could be A primary surplus equivalent to 1.3% of GDP, but with a financial deficit of 0.1%.
Since the margins that are handled are very limited, The government still has a lot of land ahead To apply your maxim that if you lower income, then you have to make an equivalent adjustment.
The problem is that according to the dynamics seen so far The expenses could grow at a rate of 3% monthly, they estimate in Cohen Argentina, while the total income is on decline. In January, despite the fact that tax collection improved just over 5%, total income fell 2% real.
The Erogations will continue to rise in 2025 because the government index the pension cost, which explains more than half of the total of the items, for past inflation. It is an untouchable type of disruption, in such a way that If I had to re -apply chainsaw in 2025 it has to do it on other types of items that are not many.
Last year He already stopped doing public works, it is also expected that this year The subsidy expenditure falls. It also stopped sending discretionary money to the provinces.
The data handled Cohen, exposed in a recent talk with its customers are: Income would be 16.6% of GDP while primary expenditure will be equivalent to 15.4% of GDP. “We believe that the expense will grow to a real monthly. Subsidies should maintain a real 10% drop, ”they point out.
Last year The Government had an invaluable help of inflation to close the numbers. On the one hand improved tax collection when impacting taxes, while exports withholdings They charged strength in the first half of the year due to the initial improvement of the exchange rate and the recomposition of the liquidation of currency of the field, after the drought of 2023.
In addition to this, in 2024 There were extras that helped improve tax revenuessuch as the moratorium and the fiscal package.
This year, without Tax Country and without all the help of that extra income, everything will depend on economic growth To compensate. That in the first months is surely achieved.
Better political front
Another point that The market sees favorable for the dynamics of the economy is the suspension of open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries (step). It is considered to be a volatility factor based on possible results.
The market consensus today is that The popularity of the government has already touched the roof. Only the evolution of other factors such as cryptocurrency scandal will be observed to see if that can affect later.
Source: Ambito
