Too Big To Fail. Too big to drop it. To close a new agreement, Argentina would count for more than 35% of the total portfolio of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of a total of 92 countries with which the agency has assistance. It must be contemplated in the equation that, in recent years, both Egypt, Ecuador and even Ukraine received strong disbursements that today weigh in the total and distribute assistance.
It is known: the phrase, too big to … refers to an idea that dawned in the crisis of Lehman Brothers but can be transpired. There are actors, banks, countries that They assume excessive risks In the idea that they are “Too great to drop them” and put a whole system in check.
The fact is that, once again, the shadow of Argentina grows as a debtor of the International Monetary Fund. In the last hours, several financial entities began to risk some figures of the next Salvage? From the IMF to Argentina. In just 60 years, at least 20 times Argentina had to resort to the agency.
The endorsement of the United States and the problem of being “too big”
In all reports, estimates talk about Between US $ 8,000 million YU $ 2,000 million fresh funds that the government would receive, added to other resources that will begin to repair a part of those disbursements. In other words, the new program would cover both capital and interest payments to the IMF during the rest of President’s mandate Javier Milei.
A priori, this implies an increase in debt to the agency. Apart from the technical discussion of the “creditor change” (the treasure repayers to the BCRA and capitalizes it), the result is that, as stated, for the IMF, and if the new financial assistance is completed, Argentina will exceed 35% of its portfolio Credit, which counts for a total of US $ 145,446 million.
According to official data from the IMF itself updated today and calculated by scope, Argentina owes to the agency about 31,000 million in special turn rights (DEG)which is the IMF currency, in rigor, according to the agency, it is a “rights of potential issuance on free use coins” of IMF members. The value of the DEG is based on a basket of five coins: the US dollar, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen and the sterling pound.
From Deg to loans to Egypt, Ecuador and Ukraine
Being a coin basket, each DEG is the equivalent Au $ S1,32. This results in An updated debt of US $ 41,182 million of Argentina. To this we must add the next US $ 10,000 million fresh funds (they are likely to be more), whatever throws 35.18% of the total loans of IMF.
In recent years, the IMF reinforced its loans to Egypt, Ecuador and Ukrainewhat had diluted, in part the gravitation of Argentina in the total. For example, in December 2024, the IMF board approved the sixth review of the agreement signed with Ukraine, A decision aimed at sustaining the war efforts that immediately granted US $ 1,100 million, which led the debt with the agency to the US $14,686 million. In the case of Egypt and Ecuador, The updated debt is located at US $ 10,807 million YU $ S8715 million respectively.
In the last hours, according to a report by the Swiss Bank UBS, it transpired that the financing of the IMF to Argentina would exceed US $1,000 million, which is the figure corresponding to the amortization of the debt with the IMF in the coming years. However, the entity estimates that up to about US $ 8,000 million, a number similar to the obligations of debt interests could be added.
In addition to UBS, other international banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America They launched forecasts with potential disbursements between U $ S5,000 million YU $ s10,000 Millions by 2025, taking into account that Argentina does not have to make capital payments to the IMF until next year.
Source: Ambito
