Although there is still no confirmation of any amount by the sources of the officers and much less the conditions to which the government will be submitted with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there are some elements that allow inferring How many free availability dollars could inject the fund within the framework of the new agreement that supports the decree issued by President Javier Milei with the purpose of strengthening the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA).
The first approach would imply evaluating that, as he could know Scope of sources close to the agreement, what until now seems to be an open negotiation with the fund, and always in accordance with the elements provided by Decree 179/2025, it would be based on The restructuring of the Extended Facilities Agreement (EFF) that the former Minister Martín Guzmán in 2022 was timely closed in 2022although not a new debt.
In facts, you might think of a sui generis species of “Reversion of the Brady Plan”used to restructure the debt of the countries of the region in the 80s, but now between the IMF and Argentina, to cover the BCRA reserves and eliminate the non -transferable letters.
The key fact is that, until now, and by some indications that suggest the decree issued by the Government this week, The IMF would commit to return to the Government the Deg paid timely by Argentina within the original Guzmán agreement.
Strictly speaking, and in tune with the official data recorded by the IMF, it is about some 2,512 million DEGthe equivalent of about US $ 342 million. This money is the one that would be used to cancel the debt that the treasure maintains with the BCRA, since With these resources the treasure can capitalize to the BCRA with about US $ 10,000 million nominal value For non -transferable letters.
The big question that immediately underlies this first development is if that sum of resources will be sufficient to strengthen the BCRA reserves that are at a negative level of approximately US $ 9,000 million, according to various calculations and thus avoid a devaluation in the coming months.
Capitalize to the BCRA, but without increasing debt
Again, so far and not media news in the negotiation that could break from one moment to another, The Government would receive only US $ 342 million with the aim of using money to repurchase non -transferable letters in the BCRA. The first repurchase would be carried out, as it transpired, June 1, 2025 for about US $ 10,000 million.
Thus, the new agreement would imply a term modification, but it would maintain at the origin the debt that the former Minister Martín Guzmán negotiated, added to the contributions in Deg that the IMF made in 2023 product of the drought. Once the return of the resources appropriately paid by Argentina, the agreement would reestablish would be made The original 45,000 million amount in Deg that registered the country in December 2023, that is, about US $ 59,000 million.
In this way, the IMF would be able to keep the amount of DEG in a timely manager to Argentina (not to increase the debt) constant, while injecting new resources product of the return of the paid by Argentina so far and the differential of the value of the DEG that goes from US $ 1,27 au $ S1,33. The debt would not increase in Deg -need not to go through Congress and that the FMI -Board validates it, but it would increase in dollars.
The IMF does not want, either, to add more debt to Argentina
There is another nuance that should stand out. Both the IMF and Congress seem to act as a limit for greater indebtedness. For that reason, the Government would have yielded to make a “creative accounting” that implies in the events a restructuring and return to zero foja of the agreement that Martín Guzmán held timely.
In this way, the debt with the agency would not be increased (the original amount of the 2022 agreement is maintained), but would obtain additional resources to partial the reserves. On the other hand, Congress would not have the alternative to analyze the new agreement, since it would actually be a restructuring of a previous agreement That, in fact, according to the government, does not imply more debt.
“The money that enters the IMF, the treasure will use it to cancel part of its debt to the Central Bank, so that the gross debt does not rise and in case it is used to rescue titles whose market value is under the torque, it will fall. Therefore, the agreement with the IMF seeks to restore the heritage of the BCRA, so that inflation is only a bad memory of the past, ”said the president in a column published last Saturday.
The sources also point out that the government would be putting guarantee the accumulated fiscal surplus of 2024that is, about US $ 3,195 million, which would hinder the consensus of legislators since there is no approved budget for 2025.
IMF’s resources to make over the maturities
As it transpired, on the other hand, payments will be deferred to the body. In this sense, there are those that weigh the possibility of refinancing the maturities of 2025 and 2026, which would show a sum of 4,178 million in Deg or about US $ 5,558 million.
However, in the recitals of the decree, The government is committed to Roll Over of the maturities of the next four years and six months for a total of up to $ 13,000 million. “You have to see how far the IMF considers that it is indicated to guarantee the Roll Over, since in 2027 there will be elections and it is not certain that you want to renegotiate with the Government of Javier Milei,” said a source.
Source: Ambito
