The collapse of the bag destroyed half a dozen billion dollars and twisted the nerves to the fullest. It was the bond market – the 30 -year -old rate overflowing 5% – the one who snatched the Joystick from the president.
How much did the epic of liberation last? What lasted the temper of Wall Street. The collapse of the bag destroyed half a dozen billion dollars and twisted the nerves to the fullest. Three times he spoke Jamie Dimon In the week. As if your usual task was the comments for TV (which consumes the White House) and not conduct JP Morgan. But his work is to influence and did it perfectly. The fat fish that surrounded President Trump smiling in his assumption became, suddenly, pirañas crazed by the River of Blood. And they did not retake the bites with each other (Elon Musk versus Peter Navarro, Bill Ackman versus Howard Lutnick, and vice versa). However, it was not the stock market that forced the reversal of the government. No. Trump 2.0 was designed to proof of the tantrums of the actions. It was the bond market – the 30 -year -old rate overflowing 5% – the one who snatched the Joystick from the president. Because the escalation of long rates has no antidotes. An old lesson in the policy that James Carville explained to a young Bill Clinton back in 1992. It is true, the public is renewed. And the presidents, too.
The anxiety of the treasure bonds forced Pausar the commercial crusade for 90 days at the level of the universal tariff of 10% for all countries, except for China (in line with what Bill Ackman raised two days before Bill Ackman, of Pershing). That is, the yellow banners that on April 2 detailed the “reciprocity” country by country were already deactivated. And its immediate effect was a monumental euphoria (in mirror reaction to the damage they caused). China is a separate chapter. The tariffs continued climbing until the level that inhibits bilateral direct trade. Trump took them to 145%, XI replied with 125%. At this point they only allow smuggling and triangulation. You will have to hurry to negotiate (it is known, Beijing will now be in a hurry). The weekend was already known a first claudication (dedicated to Apple). Washington enabled the importation of electronic products – such as cell phones and laptops – free “reciprocal” tariffs. Better step back than the rebellion of the masses.
Trump did: What is the destination of the flight to quality?
Sell America! With his reckless initiative of the day of liberation, Trump ruined the shares, the bonds of the treasure and the dollar, all in simultaneous. Not even the ephemeral government of Liz Truss in Great Britain in 2022 got so much in such a short time. Send Pique to Wall Street and, at the same time, incite a stampede of the long rates and the flight of the currency is the recipe of a banana enclave, and not the crisis manual of a G7 country. What is the shelter to preserve capital? In the old international order that Trump came to torpedo were the dollar and the treasure bonds. Even if the crisis were of American clothing, such as the subprime debt and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. And today? What is the destination of the flight to quality? Europe, with common currency and German bunds. The coins that provide anchono: The Swiss Franco and the Japanese yen. Nassim Taleb points out: little Nero achieved what no event, no tension, no pandemic from Bretton Woods, replacing the dollar as a reserve currency with gold. On the margin, it is understood. But capital escape is a sign that balcony in front of the abyss. With Biden, there was no country risk in the US. Trump did.
The Fed, ready if necessary
If the dollar and treasure bonds are not appropriate refuge in the storm, then the storm must cease. Washington cannot promote her under penalty of succumbing for her own impulse. That is the reason for the reverse that reality, and influential entrepreneurs (who also suffer politicians’ campaigns), imposed on Trump. Not only did his honeymoon end, the credit was over. Is the end of your commercial saga? It will continue, but we have already seen the tolerable peak of the tension. It is urgent to be descale. And not for fear of the bear market or the recession, today the most likely horizon. The distrust of consumers and investors already settled there. No. The priority is another. Let’s listen to Susan Collins, governor of the Central Bank. “The Fed is” ABSOLUTELY’S LIST TO MAINTAIN THE STABLE FUNCTIONING OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS If that need arises “he said in the climax of the anxiety. To good understanding: that a credit accident does not arise, because it will ruin the dynamics present in the act. The commercial saga will go to the background. The damage may no longer contain the pause mode. Not with anything Trump says or decide.
THE POST FOR SCOTT BESENT
How close was Lehman a moment? Difficult to know. 24 hours? 48? And better not know or try to find out. Maybe this lesson has arrived on time. Everything indicates that Scott Besent, the secretary of the Treasury, a trader with 35 years of experience in the trench of the markets, takes the post of commercial negotiations by displacing the ideas of Peter Navarro. It is what Dimon and the financiers asked. An adult near the Oval Hall, who also officiates as a risk director. Besent, who was in Babia on the day of liberation, to the point of not knowing with certainty how the tariff that China had to work was built, was the one who convinced Trump that he had to step on the brake immediately. Besent worked with George Soros, when his Quantum Fund made the pound sterling jump in 1992, and eject it from the European exchange mechanism, the prelude to its incorporation into the common currency. It is now the opposite role: take care of defending the dollar and the bonds and avoiding a mishap that makes the 1992 exchange burst to a modest children’s game seem.
Source: Ambito
