Thus, as anticipated, as of Monday, April 14, human people will no longer have quantitative restrictions for buy dollars at the official exchange rate for the first time in 6 years. The new exchange scheme proposes a near future with modifications in the Argentine economy.
The changes were announced by the BCRA through communication to 8226. In this sense, all access restrictions linked to government assists received during pandemia, subsidies and public employment, inter alia.
Milei’s new exchange scheme also provides for modifications in imports of goods and less restricted access to Change free market (MLC). The new exchange scheme offers freer scenarios for access to the currency by legal persons.
From the government they expect this new stage of greater openness to allow normalize access to currencies accelerate the transition to a unified exchange market.
Strengthening of Central Bank reserves (BCRA)
Hours before the president’s national chain, the International Monetary Fund confirmed the AGREEMENT OF THE AGREEMENT WITH ARGENTINA. This way, The international agency will grant US $ 20,000 million in 48 months, With a First immediate disbursement for US $ 12,000.
Currently, in reference to net reserves, the Central Bank presents a negative balance of US $ 6,000 million. As detailed by the government, the Treasure It will give that money to the agency led by Santiago Bausili for their “sanitation”, with the aim of recovering the INTRANSFERIBLE LETTERS.
BCRA
But the announcement of the landing of money was not there. Milei said, in its national chain, that the BCRA reserves will amount to US $50,000: “the program between the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, IDB and a repo from the Central Bank amounts to $ 32,000 million, of which US $ 19.6 billion will be disbursed immediately. In this way, for the month of May the gross reserves of the Central Bank will be around U $ 50,000 million “.
“With this level of reservations We can quietly support all the existing weights of our economyproviding more monetary security to our citizens, “he said.
In reference to the IMF, the agreement provides that the First review of the program is planned for June 2025with an additional disbursement in U $ 2,000 million. In this sense, the accumulation of reservations will not only be a slogan but will be a condition of the background for the next disbursements. In this scenario – and with the memory of 2018 – if the Central Bank decides to intervene to stop a run, You must then recover those currencies so as not to break the goals.
The new government exchange scheme
Beyond the lifting of restrictions, Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced exchange flexibility included in phase 3 of the economic program. Thus, the official value will float between a $ 1,000 and $ 1,400 band, whose limits will be extended at a rate of 1% monthly.
In this sense, It will go from the 1% monthly crawling – Combined so far with the “Dollar Blend” scheme – to give rise to a regime of mobile bands. In detail, the upper band will rise to the rhythm of 1% and, meanwhile, the lower band It will descend to the same tempo. Under this scheme, the government expects the dollar to float “freely”, although it remains pending on a possible intervention in case any of the limits is exceeded.
Will there be devaluation?
At the moment, we will have to wait to know how the exchange rate will open the Next Monday. However, government modifications will generate important movements during the near future.
Initially, if there is a massive turnaround to the purchase of foreign currency, the exchange rate can rise. In this sense, the limit is given by the upper band established by the Government, located at $ 1,400. To reach this figure, it will be a jump of the near exchange rate to 30% with respect to the official value, that will have its impact on the economy.
According to Economists and Operators of the City, the national currency will be devalued against the dollar as of this Monday. In detail, they expect the weight devalue at least 15% As of this Monday and the dollar saves the current $ 1,078 (wholesaler) to the $ 1,300/$ 1,340 zone, near the financial exchange rate, which would imply a rise between 20% and 25%.
How Government’s ads will impact on inflation
Well above the level projected by the consultants, March inflation rose to 3.7%. Thus, it not only advanced for the second consecutive month but broke the 3%barrier. This rise was driven by education and food, They jumped 21.6% and almost 6%, respectivelyas reported this afternoon the Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC).
Supermarket prices inflation consumption
Mariano Fuchila
Undoubtedly, the 5.9% rise in food marked the strong acceleration of the CPI since it is the most incidence in all regions. This notable increase was due to strong increases in vegetables, tubers and legumes and meats and derivatives.
It is expected that in this floating scheme – with a tendency to make the dollar reach the value of the financial ones – to have a implication in April inflation after the acceleration recorded in March.
Source: Ambito
