The National Government announced a Unprecedented agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) For a total amount of U $20,000 million. This economic program, structured on three axes -change in the exchange regime, fiscal adjustment and structural reforms -seeks to stabilize the local economy, reinforce reservations and improve investment confidence.
One of the main components of the agreement is the implementation of a New exchange scheme with mobile bands. The official dollar may fluctuate between US $ 1,000 YU $ 1,400with Central Bank Intervention at the ends of the band. The bands will adjust monthly 1%. While the program contemplates the Progressive elimination of stocks for human peopletaxes to the dollar tourist 35% and 45% will remainas well as companies to companies until 2025.
From the fiscal point of view, according to the latest report of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC) A is projected Historical adjustment. The government undertakes to achieve a Primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2025which will imply an aggressive restructuring of public spending. Among the planned measures are Subsidies cuts, Tax Reformand Modifications to the pension system.
The IMF has arranged strict conditionalitieswhich include milestones such as Total elimination of the stocks to the savings dollar in June 2025a Pension reform in September 2025and the privatization of state companies by 2026. These reforms are aimed at improving state efficiency and attracting international investments.
The financial program includes staggered disbursementswith a first transfer of US12,000 million. The remaining will be delivered after quarterly reviewswhere compliance with macroeconomic, fiscal and structural goals will be evaluated.
What investments are recommended after agreement with the IMF
In investment analysis, the CEPEC report recommends Selective exhibition in sovereign bonds in dollarswith emphasis on short sections such as GD29 and GD30that combine good return with less risk due to greater exchange predictability.
In the universe of bonds in pesos, the preference for instruments adjusted by CERin front of those of fixed rate, in a context where it is anticipated Inflationary acceleration In the short term. The Lecaps They could also represent specific opportunitiesdepending on political and monetary evolution.
In Variable rentthe sectors energetic and financial They are outlined as the main beneficiaries of the agreement. Companies like YPF, Pampa Energía (PAM), Grupo Galicia (Ggal) and Macro Bank (BMA) They could register increases, especially if progress is made in the Exchange liberalization and improves the classification of Argentina in international indices such as MSCI.
The report also analyzes ACTIVES Dollar Linkedthat show a Expected adjustment from 15% to 25%approaching the dollar levels counted with liquidation (CCL). It is recommended to monitor its evolution within the established band.
However, the agreement faces Important risks. Among them are the Initial exchange volatilitya Inflationary goal of 18-23% by 2025 that seems ambitiousand the High political cost of the adjustment in an electoral year.
In addition, the External vulnerability Before eventual international shocks, with a program faces significant challenges:
- Initial exchange volatility: bull pressure on the dollar could test the resistance of the BCRA
- Inflation: 18-23% goal by 2025 seems ambitious
- Political sustainability: Fiscal adjustment in electoral year
- Global context: vulnerability to external shocks
The three possible economic scenarios for 2025:
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Optimistic (30%): capital entrance, fiscal compliance and dollar stabilized in USD 1,200.
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Base (50%): partial compliance with goals and dollar around USD 1,300.
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Pessimistic (20%): capital output and loss of reservations, with dollar by pressing the roof of USD 1,400.
For investors, a position is recommended cautious and diversifiedkeeping limited exposure in pesos through CER instruments, taking advantage of Short Bonds in Dollaand observing closely the quarterly IMF reports.
“Political sustainability will be key: social tensions and reform resistance They could hinder the implementation of the program. Success will depend on The government’s ability to align expectations, maintain political support and meet the agreed goals “highlighted the report of the center led by El Economista Leo Anzalone.
Source: Ambito
