The agreement signed by the Argentine government with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) It does not leave much space to Lower tax pressure, since from 2026 and 2027 It raises very ambitious fiscal surplus goals.
That does not imply that Some taxes cannot be lowered, as President Javier Milei states and that it is one of its main promises of government. But If I do so, within the framework of a tax reform, that implies that others will have to climb.
The agreement states that The Government has to present at the end of the year a 1.3% primary surplus of the internal gross product (GDP) although Milei has said that it goes for a 1.6%. In 2026 SUPERÁVIT must rise to 2.2 and in 2027 to 2.5%, as in 2028 and 2029. This year the financial surplus, that is, after the payment of debt interest, can be zero, as in 2026. In 2027, 2028 and 2029 it has to be 0.4% of GDP.
Miracles Gismondi, Economist of the Stock Society Cohen Argentina. considers that The goals are optimistic although he points out that “Beyond the agreement with the fund to go down the debt there should be even more surplus ”.
“Is Challenging considering the current formula (retirement adjustment)when inflation goes down, andThe pension expense would remain stable, so that in the rest of the things we should continue making a tax adjustment ”explained in a talk with Scope.
Gizmodi considered that “It is not less to think of 2.5%”of primary surplus for Argentina Although it is not so simple task especially thinking that at some point there must be a tax decline that is so important for this government. ”
“Further Beyond that they can improve the tax burden, lower the distortive and rise others that it is difficult to think of a more or less aggressive tax considering that you have to have more primary surplus, ”he added.
The Government Tax Reform
The President Javier Milei raised a tax reformthat in principle could not reduce the total load, but underwent the same between distortive taxes, that prices, such as gross income or export withholdings, and non -distortive taxes.
The Idea would be that only six or seven taxes manage to raise the same as today do about 30 taxes and fees. It is not easy for the government because needs the consensus of governors. For example, there is talk of replacing gross income with a provincial VAT.
The government has already exceeded the goal of the first quarter
According to an analysis of the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA), at the close of the first quarter, Economy Minister Luis Caputo lifted approximately $ 710,000 million above the goal. The IMF says that Argentina should have achieved between January and March a balance in favor of $ 3.64 billion, but got $ 4.35 billion.
It should be remembered that in June 2025, the government will return to restore the Export withholdings which reduced last year to stimulate dollar settlement.
Source: Ambito
