Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMP) They signed an agreement under the extended ease (EFF) for US $ 20,000 million to 48 months, with the aim of strengthening the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA), more flexible the exchange regime and clean up its balance. The key goal is to accumulate US $ 5,000 million in net reserves for June of 2025, within an annual objective of US $ 8.9 billion, from a deficit of US $ 9.5 billion.
To achieve it, indulgently, The IMF allows you to resort to repurchase (rest) and debt issuancea strategy that the government prioritizes to avoid purchases of dollars in the exchange market within the band ($ 1,000- $ 1,400), intervening only if the exchange rate touches $ 1,000, as the president said. This dependence on the debt makes it possible to “sleep” the exchange rate – keeping it stable – while the IMF goals are met, but generates doubts about sustainability financial in a context of strict macroeconomic conditions.
The agreement started with a disbursement of US $ 12,000 million, raising the gross reserves of the BCRA AU $ S36.799 million to April 15, the highest level in two years. US $ 1,500 million were added multilateral organisms (World Bank and IDB) and, attention, A repo of US $ 2,000 million with private banksaccording to the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo. Federico Furiase, director of the BCRA, confirmed that this repo, in the final phase of negotiation, reinforces the reserves and gives credibility to the exchange scheme of bands, highlighting that the U $ S15.5 billion initial (IMF and multilateral) plus repo are a “fire power” to stabilize the economy. For June, US $ 4,100 million (US $ 2,000 million of IMF YU $ S2.100 million of other entities) YU $ S3.5 billion in the second semester is expected. However, Net, negative reserves at US $ 9,500 million before the agreement, are the main challenge, and the indebtedness strategy seeks to compensate for the limited organic accumulation of foreign exchange.
The exchange band, the reserve dollar and the expectation
The debt allows the government to avoid intervening in the exchange market within the bandaligning with Milei’s position to buy dollars only if the exchange rate falls to $ 1,000. With the official exchange rate even at $ 1,095, this decision would delay currency purchases, keeping the dollar relatively stable or “sleeping” inside the band.
This reduces the pressure on the BCRA to accumulate organically reserves, since the rests and the possible emission of bonds provide the necessary dollars to meet the IMF goals. However, This strategy depends on the government’s ability to manage new financial obligations.
The IMF set quarterly net reserves for 2025: US $ 2,387 million as of March 31, US $ 3,061 million as of June 30, US $ 4,726 million as of September 30 YU $ S5.173 million as of December 31, with an adjusted annual objective of US $ 4,000 million. The IMF projects gross reserves of U $ S47.7 billion at the end of 2025, Front AU $ S22,603 million in 2024, but the dependence on the debt raises risks if the exchange rate is not aligned with the accumulation needs.
The rests, such as US $ 2,000 million negotiated with private banks, are short -term loans backed by assets, usually sovereign bonds, which the BCRA must repurchase. Furiase stressed that this operation strengthens the coverage of weights with reserves, differentiating from previous programs that financed fiscal deficits. However, the rest increases financial obligations and depend on the confidence of the creditors.
Debt issuance, another allowed tool, implies placing bonds in international or domestic markets, but global conditions – affected by commercial tensions and tariffs of the Trump administration – reduce demand for Argentine assets. The debt in pesos could raise interest rates and complicate refinancing. When resorting to these options, the government can stabilize the exchange rate without direct intervention of the BCRA, but at the expense of A greater financial burden that could stress the balance of the central bank in the medium term.
The IMF imposes strict conditions to support this strategy. The BCRA cannot finance the treasure, limiting its role in the exchange market to the accumulation of reserves, which implies a monetary framework based on the control of monetary aggregates and real interest rates. The IMF requires a more flexible exchange policy, gradually eliminating change controls to align the exchange rate with economic foundations and support disinflation. The strategy of “sleeping” the exchange rate, enabled by debt, could enter into tension with these demands if the exchange rate does not reflect economic needs, discouraging exports. In addition, the Agreement forces to repurchase non -transferable letters of the Treasury held by the BCRA, valued at US $23,561 million (nominal value of US $ 69,363 million), turning internal debt into external and aggravating the financial burden without significantly reducing indebtedness.
The IMF and the fiscal and monetary policy
The Fiscal disciplinewith a mandatory primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025 ($ 10.52 billion at the end of the year), it seeks to reduce the pressure on the exchange market, but the stability of the exchange rate could discourage exporters, which face a less competitive dollar, affecting the foreign exchange supply. The IMF requires a 95% coverage of the universal child allocation (AUH) and the feed card to protect vulnerable sectors, but the increase in debt poses questions about long -term sustainability.
The global context, with commercial disputes and American protectionism, makes financing more expensive, and although the country risk has fallen, it remains elevated. The IMF projects commercial surpluses of US $ 5,000 au $ 10,000 million annually in medium -term reserves, but persistent inflation and global uncertainty could stop this impulse.
Reserve goals face quarterly revisions in June, September and December 2025, and March 2026, with disbursements of US $ 700 million in each of the seven revisions until 2029. Failure to suspend the disbursements, pressing reserves and exchange rate. Historically, Argentina has had difficulty meet reservations: in 2023, the government of Alberto Fernández failed due to drought, and in 2024, Milei exceeded fiscal goals, but not those of net reserves. Economist Orlando Ferreres warned that a “sleeping” exchange rate could be “inconvenient” if exported, complicating the organic accumulation of reserves and reinforcing debt dependence.
Source: Ambito
