Mexico and China stand out among the countries most affected by economic slowdown. The multilateral credit agency warns about the limits of the fiscal space in nations in development.
He International Monetary Fund (IMF) He reduced his Tuesday Economic growth estimates For emerging countries in 2025warning that the strictest financing conditions and a marked shortage of money for investments could inflict damage to developing nations.
Among the causes of the deceleration are the new tariffs promoted by the administration of Donald Trump and a growing political uncertainty that complicates global recovery after the impacts of pandemic and war in Ukraine. “The risks remain firmly inclined down”the IMF warned in his report.
According to him World Economics Perspectives Reportnow it is expected that these emerging economies grow a 3.7% in 2025 and a 3.9% in 2026, Half a percentage point below the projected in January. These last forecasts mark a strong deceleration with respect to the estimated growth of 4.3% by 2024.
The IMF cuts its prognosis for emerging economies: coup to Mexico and China; Russia, the exception
Mexico was one of the most beaten nations by the review: The IMF reduced in 1.7 percentage points its growth forecast for this yeareven anticipating a contraction of 0.3% of GDP. China, For his part, he also suffered a negative adjustment of 0.6 points for 2025affected by the war of tariffs with USA.
In contrast, Russia registered a slight improvement in its projection by 2025with estimated growth of 1.5%, although well below 4.1% reached the previous year. This deceleration directly influences the growth projection of emerging Europe, which would remain in a 2.1% both in 2025 as in 2026.
Growing and lesser fiscal debt
The IMF also warned that many emerging economies currently face a much more restricted fiscal space than a decade ago, in a context of Increased debt services payments.
“The resilience demonstrated by many large economies of emerging markets can be tested as the service of high levels of debt becomes more difficult in unfavorable global financial conditions”Points out the report.
Although some countries managed to finance in favorable conditions during the pandemic, they must refinance these debts in a less benign environment, which could significantly increase their effective rates.
The lack of concessional financing and for development could further aggravate the situation of low -income countriesforcing them to resort to greater fiscal adjustments or assume more debt, with negative consequences for growth and standard of living.
Source: Ambito
