The Government is experiencing a sort of “exchange summer” in which parallel dollars move without any problems. What factors influence this and what could happen in the coming days?
The Government is experiencing a sort of “exchange summer”. blue dollar, he MEP and the CCL are located in the order of $1,200. Meanwhile, the gaps of these parallel exchange rates already pierce 30%. What variables could keep them at bay in the coming days, reducing the chances of a exchange rate jump?
1. The Fed’s rate cut
According to economist Federico Glustein, consulted by Ámbito, “the Fed’s rate cut improves the position of emerging countries with respect to the dollar, motivating foreign currency inflows to our country in search of a higher rate despite the greater risk.” It is worth remembering that last week, the The Fed cut rates by 50bp, a decision that moved stock markets around the world.
2. Wholesale inflation down
Wholesale inflation slowed to 2.1% monthly in August, the lowest level since May 2020This decrease was mainly due to the Falling international prices in the agricultural and energy sectors, and at the current pace of adjustment of the official exchange rate (“crawling peg”) that the Central Bank (BCRA) has been defending since January. In this sense, lower inflation generates calm in the exchange market and therefore, greater confidence in the economic policy pursued by the Government.
3. Announcement of payments for 2025 debt
The Government made a new one wink to creditors. EThe Treasury completed the purchase of US$1.528 million from the Central Bank that will be used to pay the next interest payment on foreign debt securities, which was scheduled for January.
This is a gesture that adds to the signals sent last Sunday by President Javier Milei, who assured that the 2025 Budget is designed so that the primary surplus necessary to pay the interest on the debt is an unbreakable rule (once compliance with creditors is guaranteed, it will be seen what remains for the rest of the State’s budget).
Ministry of Economy
Ignacio Petunchi
4. Bleaching
In recent weeks, the adoption of money laundering measures has accelerated. This is reflected in the growth of dollar deposits in the financial system, which according to official data, since the program was launched until September 17, bank deposits in dollars have increased by approximately US$4 billion.
Thus, foreign currency deposits in financial institutions rose to 24.561 billion dollars, its highest level in five yearsThis increased supply of dollars causes the exchange rate to drop.
6. Blend Dollar
With no signs of being eliminated, the “blend” dollar is still more relevant than ever. Today, exporters continue to liquidate 80% at the official dollar and 20% at the CCL, which continues to generate supply in the financial dollar, lowering its value.
7. New entrants to the moratorium
Companies exchange dollars for the payment of Personal Property.
8. Reduction of the COUNTRY TAX
With the reduction in rates, importers channel their operations through the MULC.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
