He dollar experienced a sharp decline in recent weeks, driven by a higher than expected foreign exchange inflow within the framework of the bleach of capital promoted by the Government.
The question is whether there is room for the prices of blue, CCL and MEP to continue declining, or if they found a floor.
The blue dollar is trading at $1,180, the MEP at $1,135 and the cash with liquid (CCL) at $1,177.
One of the reasons that experts give when projecting that there is still room for prices to fall is the ability of the Central Bank to prevent prices from skyrocketing.
The monetary authority has already purchased more than US$600 million so far in October, and everything indicates that it will be able to continue adding foreign currency.
Purchases are sustained because the liquidation of the field remains at high levels.
According to a report by the consulting firm Fernando Marull y Asociados, to project a declining dollar, the improvement in dollar credits and ON emissions (close to US$2,000 million in 3 months) is added, and the fact that there is not a big jump in import payments.
The laundering is turning out to be more successful than expected, and they received $13 billion and in October $697 million came out of that amount.
Laundering explains the exchange rate summer and the Government hopes that most of these funds could remain within the system.
If this is true, part of the laundering dollars will increase the reserves of the Central Bank, which expands the firepower and distances the idea that there could be a jump in the official exchange rate.
Also contributing to maintaining exchange calm is the prevailing view in the market that the Government is beginning to clear up the doubts that persisted about the payment of debt maturities in 2025.
The good news from the Monetary Fund announcing a reduction in surcharges that allows relief of US$3.2 billion for Argentina crowned a positive week for the Government and encourages the idea that financial conditions are improving.
Analysts estimate that dollars will find a floor in a range of $1,080 to $1,150.
According to a report from Adcap Grupo Financiero, the dollar may continue to fall, especially in this period of Central Bank purchases.
For its part, for Portfolio Personal Inversiones one of the keys will be what happens with the so-called “carry trade”, for which dollars are sold to convert to pesos, benefit from the rate and then return to buy more dollars than at the beginning.
A key fact is that the CCL – the dollar used by companies – is at the lowest level since the run-up to PASO 2019.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
