Dollar in 2025: how much will the currency reach in the first months of next year, according to the market

The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) published this Thursday the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out during October, which provides the forecasts from the city’s gurus for the dollar, inflation and other key variables of the economy.

The consulting firms and financial entities that participated in it they once again reduced their devaluation expectations and they put a price on the dollar, both for the end of the year and for the next 12 months. The data is known in the midst of an exchange rate calm that has the blue dollar in a tailspin.

Thus, the median of the REM nominal exchange rate projections was located at $1,001 per dollar for the November 2024 average, which would imply a average monthly increase of 2% in the exchange rate. For the Top 10, the expected average nominal exchange rate for November is $1.004.

For December, for their part, the group of participants predicted a nominal exchange rate of $1,021, 50 cents less than in the last REM. The interannual variation to December implicit in the forecasts was 59%.

But the greatest adjustments to the official exchange rate were observed in February and March 2025, projecting that the current monthly level of 2% of the “crawling peg” will be maintained.

Thus, for In the second month of next year, analysts predict a dollar of $1,064, $22 lower than the estimate in September, while for March, they place it at $1,085, $27.1 lower than the previous calculation.

Likewise, the city’s analysts cut their projections for the price of the wholesale dollar by $34.20 a year from now, which would be $1,245.

Indeed, The market expects that the real exchange rate will continue to appreciate since, while an exchange rate jump of 17.9% is foreseen in the next 12 months, the expected inflation is 35%.