Stocks and bonds, in the face of the stock market boom: which are the market’s favorites and how far they can rise

In this context, it is important to analyze what sectors have greater potential for growth and what precautions must be taken into account.

Stocks: what are the “jewels” that the market sees with upside potential

For analysts, the upward trend of the Buenos Aires index remains firm and the victory of Donald Trump in the north gave a strong boost to all financial assets. In short, it had a very positive impact on the local equity market. Thus, there is winning stocks, sectors and companies. There are also some laggards, but with encouraging prospects.

Pablo LazzatiCEO of InsiderFinance, In a conversation with this medium, he maintains that one of the stocks with upside potential is Agrometal. This is because it could benefit from investments under the RIGI in the mining and oil sectors. Furthermore, the strategist maintains that its price has shown a moderate increase since last December, which leaves room for a possible revaluation.

Lazzati also slips that, within the market as well, there are two important actions. It is about BYMA (Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos), “which shows a solid cash position in cash and bonds, accompanied by good operating results.” However, its current price does not yet reflect these fundamentals.

The second is MTRwhich represents the fusion of markets Matba, Rofex and MAE in a single action. According to Lazzati’s analysis, the current price of this paper has not yet captured the growth potential of the Argentine financial market and he states that, “if the Government manages to maintain financial stability, reduce the deficit to zero and eliminate obstacles such as taxes and stocks, “An opening to international markets would be generated.”

For its part, Second DerdoyResearch Analyst of Inviu, recommends following closely Cuyana Gas Distributor (DGCU2) and Central Gas Distributor (DGCE). It happens that although they are not part of the leading panel, these companies present solid financial fundamentals, “with good prospects for improvement in their margins from the tariff recomposition, which increases their attractiveness for investors.”

Finally, Diego Ilan MendezTeam Leader of Corporate Credits in Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI), recalled that the materials sector is the big loser of the year, largely due to the recession. Both industry and construction were greatly affected, particularly the latter, by the decline in public works. “However, this sector could become the big winner in 2025, if economic activity recovers, which would allow a rebound in some of its companies,” says the strategist. So, Loma Negra (LOMA)in particular, has the potential to change controlling companies, which would add additional value.

Bonds: the market expects an improvement in the risk rating

According to Gabriel Vidal RRII director of Criteriathe objective that the country has to consider today is to reach the rate levels of El Salvador or Egypt, that have returns between 9/10%. He also highlighted that if Argentina manages to access international credit markets, something that could be feasible with a country risk of 500 basis points, and which is estimated for the first half of 2025, The potential increase that the “hard dollar” debt still has is up to 27%.

For its part, since Aurum Values agree on this forecast. When reviewing the country risk projections, if the “hard dollar” curve is adjusted to levels such as those of Egyptan optimistic scenario, with a return of 9%, the Global 2038 bond could rise up to 29% to June of next year, while the one that would increase the least would be Global 2029 (+20%). For its part, if it is adjusted to levels Pakistan, which would be a normal/good case, with values ​​around 11%, the greatest advance would be that of Global 2041 (+23%) and the lowest Global 2029 (+17%).

From this report they also projected the percentage increases that could occur in each scenario: Thus they raised those of the optimist to 15% (from 5%)those of the good scenario to 60% (from 55%) and reduced those of the bad one to 20% (from 35%).

As to why the conditions under which local debt could be normalized improved, they explained: “It is due to the continuity of the improvement in the stock of deposits in dollars, a product of laundering that expands the loanable capacity of the financial system, which would allow the BCRA to continue with its foreign currency purchasing streak, even though seasonally it is not the best time of year.

From PPI, For its part, reading is also similar. If the bonds compress the CCC+ or B- curvefor New York law, returns could rise up to 32% thanks to Global 203531% if it is the case of Global 2038, 31% if it is positioned in Global 2041 and 26% for Global 2046. Regarding Argentine law, Bonares 2038 and 2041 share a potential increase of 33%, while Bonar 2035 30%.