According to James Reilly, although some investors welcome the potential deregulatory and fiscal policies that Trump could implement, there are uncertainties that could negatively affect market performance.
James Reillystrategist at Capital Economics, expressed skepticism regarding the implications of the electoral victory of donald trump in 2024 for US equities.
According to Reilly, although some investors welcome the potential deregulatory and fiscal policies that Trump could implement, there are uncertainties that could negatively affect market performance.
Reilly warned of the risk of tariffs and trade tensions that could arise under a Trump administration, which could hurt corporate profits and global supply chains. “We are not convinced that Trump’s victory is a net positive for US stocks,” he said.
In addition, he expressed doubts about the possibility of Trump carrying out another large fiscal expansion. Despite this skepticism, Capital Economics maintains an optimistic outlook on US stocks, leaning on the rise of artificial intelligence, which could be fueling what they consider a stock bubble.
The firm reaffirmed its forecast for the S&P 500, projecting a close at 7,000 points by the end of 2025. Reilly also highlighted that they believe the technology sectors will continue to lead the market.
However, analysts at Capital Economics have revised their targets for other economies’ stock markets as they believe that, as was the case in 2018 following the start of Trump’s initial trade war, “tariffs will take a heavy toll.”
While some see Trump’s victory as an opportunity for market-friendly policies, others, like Reilly and his team at Capital Economics, believe the associated risks could offset those potential benefits.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
