Amid persistent market optimism over the inflation reduction and the elimination of the fiscal deficit, analysts give their opinion on the future of the economy at a year of the assumption of Javier Milei.
On the political level, the ruling party, which is a minority in both chambers of Congress, seeks to approve the budget for next year, which contemplates a balance in public accounts.
“When (Milei) took office, many people said it’s not going to happen, a little because of this style he has, a little aggressive and saying things that one said ‘he’s not going to be able to do this’, everyone said ‘it’s not going to happen.'” to make it until March’, ‘this is not going to work’ and then, well, I’m going to say that he seemed to be much more pragmatic.“said Marina Dal Poggett of EcoGo.
One year into his administration, “he continues to appear from his speech with this narrative that society and the markets evidently bought,” he added.
Lower rates and exchange rate spring: the signs to follow closely
“The reduction in the monetary policy rate would show a vocation for do not exacerbate the ‘carry trade’ In order to flatten the dollar, tend to lower inflation and interest rates together. In the long term it looks reasonable; in the short term we will have to go calibrating banking and exchange balances”said vat net Financial Research.
“The doubt that (the appreciation of the peso) generates in me is that the economy, when it reached an exchange rate like the current one, generated such a large flow of demand for dollars that it was insufficient with the flow generated by the Argentine economy to sustain that demand. , and that is sustained with external debt,” economist Martín Rapetti said in radio statements.
“As the appreciation of the peso deepens and emerging currencies depreciate, “It is expected that the trade balance -cash basis- will continue to deteriorate”estimated the consulting firm Invecq.
“Although the Exchange ‘spring’ excites the Government, we should be cautious: “The gap may tighten again due to electoral reasons or an external shock, confidence in the model may diminish, and the flow of recent months may be reversed,” he added.
“The reasons (for the recent appreciation of the peso) are the increased demand for money due to seasonal reasons and expectations of lower inflation“said economist Roberto Geretto of Adcap.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
