The super dollar starts the year cautiously: what factors could intervene in the currencies

The super dollar starts the year cautiously: what factors could intervene in the currencies

He dollar was wobbly a little on Thursday, the first trading day of 2025, a year in which the US currency is expected to once again have a good performance after posting profits in 2024.

Market attention at the beginning of the year will be focused on the incoming Donald Trump administration and its policies, which are expected to not only boost growth but also increase pressure on prices. This will support US Treasury yields and boost demand for dollars.

The large difference in interest rates between the United States and other economies cast a shadow over the currency market over the past year, causing most currencies to decline sharply against the dollar in 2024. None more so than the yen, which cfell more than 10% in 2024 in its fourth year of decline. However, on Thursday it managed to strengthen a little: the dollar fell 0.25%, to 156.6 yen. In late December, the dollar hit five-month highs above 158 yen.

Weakening growth prospects outside the United States, conflicts in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine also have contributed to the demand for dollars.

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Demand for dollars skyrocketed in 2024 due to different geopolitical factors

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How the rest of the currencies operate in 2024

He euro also posted brief gains on Tuesdaybut they were short-lived and then traded flat at $1.0351, down from $1.12 at the end of September.

Operators anticipate further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing easing at 113 basis points, compared to the 42 basis points of cuts valued by the US central bank.

The sterling fell 0.2%at $1,250. Last year it fell 1.7%, but it was the G10 currency that performed best against the dollar, especially because the British economy held up better than expected, which, together with inflation in services, meant that the Bank of England will be more aggressive than its counterparts.

The Chinese yuan languished at 14-month lows as concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, the prospect of tariffs on U.S. imports by the Trump administration and falling local yields weighed on the investor sentiment.

After falling 2.8% against the greenback in 2024 and adding its third consecutive year of losses, the yuan in continental markets rebounded from lows of 7.31 units per dollar. According to the operators, This could reflect the authorities’ desire to stop the currency’s decline before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Source: Ambito

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