Retentions: producers and consultants believe that the reduction is here to stay

Retentions: producers and consultants believe that the reduction is here to stay

In the next hours officials of the Ministry of Economy will receive leaders from the field To analyze the situation of the sector after the temporary reduction announcement of retentions until June for the main agricultural productions, and the definitive remove for regional productions. Although it can be expected to be a meeting where doubts about operational aspects are cleared, There is an expectation that the average 20% reduction of export taxes becomes definitive. And there are important reasons for this to happen, according to analysts and consultants.

While some expose more economical arguments, that in July the liquidation of dollars of export will be re -collapsed, there are policy reasons that may have weight for themselves, beyond the state in which the Treasury accounts are found . Part of the doubts are going to clear on Wednesday at the SEcretariat of Agriculture indicated to the sources of the sector.

Low of withholdings and the objective of sustaining the fiscal surplus

It should be remembered that, announcing the measure In the Government House, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, highlighted the temporal nature of the same, depending on the need to sustain the Fiscal surplus. Until now, everything that the Palace of Finance has done, rather than tend to the premise of lowering taxes, actually, The north that guides it is to have deficit. For something, the libertarian government put as a base rule in the Budget 2025 that if the collection falls the expenses fall into the same proportion.

For those who suppose There are political reasons, There is the idea that the national government will not dare to restore withholdings to the previous level, a couple of months before the legislative elections, and buy a crisis with the field.

The consultant Salvador Di Stéfano pointed to Scope “The decline in retentions is definitive.” “What I don’t think is that the government will deepen it. I wish I can keep going down but I think this goes down is forever, ”he said. The analyst said that to that reduction You have to add 2.7% that is the gap between the “dollar blend” and the wholesale dollar. Considered, in that sense, that The improvement for exporters “is very important.”

For its part, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Chief Economist of Balance, indicated in a post in X that “The fiscal cost of the ‘transient’ decrease of withholdings for main crops in 2025 would have a minimum of US $ 800 million and a roof of US $ 1,600 millionif the reduction of export rights ends up becoming permanent. ” “There are reasons to assume the latter (the liquidation would collapse in July 2025)”said Sigaut Gravina.

The economist pointed out, on the other hand, that it is not clear “how the fiscal return in the agroindustrial chain will be distributed, but relief to the producer arrives just ”. For producers who lease fields, the equation was giving it negative due to the drop in prices, drought and retardation of the exchange rate.

Gustavo idígorasdirector of the Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic (Ciara) also raised, when the reduction was known: “We will have to see how management acts in that sense, they may decide to lower the withholdings definitively, but in a lower percentage

In this regard, the Argentine Social Development Institute (IDESA) He considered him Government “showed sensitivity to react to agriculture. The worrying thing is that the measure is just a palliative for producers, but demands a great effort for the nation in order to preserve fiscal balance. ” “The partial and transient reduction strategy of export rights goes in tune with the government’s idea to gradually reduce distortive taxes as public spending down and grow the GDP,” says the private report.

Andrés Reschini, director of the F2 consultancy, He considered it very possible for the government to leave withholdings at this level after June: “I think yes … Javier Milei’s speech in Switzerland in Davos says that ‘we have initiated a decrease in retentions to the main agricultural products’. It will be very difficult to rise again at the doors of the elections. The argument of temporality is for them to hurry. ”

Source: Ambito

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Posts