The document highlights a meteoric rise in secondary market activity. “While at the beginning of 2024 the negotiated volume of Argentine actions averaged The US $ 28 million dailyin December the figure amounted to Au $ S150 million. Similar behavior was observed in the ONS segment, where the daily volume went from US $ 262 million in January Au $ S550 million in the last month of the year.
ONS: The City clears the fears
The financial analyst, LEANDRO MONNITTOLAclear the fears of investors and explain -in statements to Scope– That in recent months many companies were financed both in Dollar MEP and CCL, when placing debt abroad. “Many of which captured great sums of money,” he says.
The strategist remembers that each broadcast has a risk rating And he warns that this is a key point: “A company with a trajectory does not go to financing and then breached, but operates within a qualified and supervised frame.”
Monittolla exposes a determining factor today and that raised the Boom of negotiable obligations. And is that The great liquidity that entered with the money laundering, “led many companies to exchange or repurchase their corporate credits.” Recent cases include the exchange of GMediterranean energy (Gemsa) and the TLC1 repurchase of Telecom. Now, YPF prepares to launch the YCA6.
What do companies achieve with these exchanges or repurchases? Monnittola responds that the strong demand for these instruments significantly reduced the internal return rates (IRR) of these assets. For example, an ON that in its primary emission had an 8 % IRR today quotes in the market with a 5 % IRR. Thus, companies “gain slack in their payment commitments and also pay less rate.”
What is behind the default of agriculture companies?
Leonardo Anzalone, Director of Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC)he comments in a talk with this medium, that the default of several companies linked to the agricultural sector It reflects the problems that faced that segment in recent years, “from drought to The fall in international prices in 2024which complicated the management of their debts. ”
The expert considers that the problem is sectorial and non -systemic, “So you should not generate greater concerns In general ”, in line with what is raised by Monnittola.
Pablo RepettoResearch Chief in Aurum values, It agrees that the problem is focused on the agricultural sector, where many companies face difficulties in rashing their debt due to lack of demand. And he adds that this caused liquidity problems in certain instruments, aggravated by droughtthe fall of international prices and an exchange rate that did not improve as some expected. ”
Reppeto is clear and warns that although it is not a generalized problem to all sectors, Some could be more affected that others, in particular “those whose profitability depends on a thighest change IPO”
For example, Izobacter, the biological supplies company belonging to the Bioceres Group, confirmed to Scope that contrary to the difficult situation facing other large companies in the sector, such as The Grobo, Agrofina and Surcos, On February 10 will carry out the Eighth Payment of its series of negotiable obligations (ON) series VIII, with a total disbursement greater than US $12.3 million.
ONS: The projections for 2025
From Byma They anticipate 2025 at any march for the financing of companies via debt placement. “It can be concluded as a general rule that the local market is in a position to satisfy financing with debt emissions of amounts of up to US $ 500 millionto consider domestic emissions with the international aggregate when society looks for funds for greater amounts. ”
And adds the report that “in the case of listing its actions, That figure goes on $ 1,000 million stock capitalization. And concludes: “According to the growth figures of the capital market of last year, Local conditions are given so that in 2025 the financing through the market for intensive capital companies ”.
Anzalone agrees that it could be a good year for corporate debt, but slips certain “drivers” to take into account the evolution of this instrument in 2025, which will depend on factors both local and international.
At the local level, Anzalone mentions that exchange policy will be decisive. “If the government maintains or hardens the stocksdemand for dollarized instruments will remain high, since investors will seek alternatives to cover themselves without going to the official market. ”
On the other hand, greater liberalization of the gear market could reduce the attractiveness of Ons in dollars, he says. And at the international level, Remember that you cannot ignore the course of interest rates in the USsince if the Fed slows or reverses the descent of interest rates, the ONS will be harmed.
What are the ONS that experts recommend
Anzalone He maintains that it is time to be “extremely precise and, above all, selective.” The key is to bet on companies great, recognized and with better perspectivesin particular in the “energy and financial” sectors.
I repeat, on the other hand, also bets on these sectors and asserts that the ONS that best covers investors against these risks and are those that today do not face problems. “A real exchange rate does not affect them as much as other sectors, and oil prices remain at levels that make them profitable. Companies such as YPF, Vista, Panamerican Energy, TGS And others in the sector have a solid economic and financial base, and their sector is productive enough to adapt to a low real exchange rate like the current one, “says the strategist.
Therefore, these companies are considered safer than others by analysts who pondered them above others that can offer better yields, but are more exposed to the situation.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
