The oil prices do not find a floor and They fall for the third consecutive weekat a time when they receive contradictory signals that add up a major market volatility. While lIn imposition of new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, they press upwardsthe renewed US War of the US President Donald Trump, against China and tariff threats to other countriesgenerate forecasts of A cooling of the global economy and a fall in demand.
The Brent barrel -Reference for Argentina- It rose slightly this Friday au $ S74.44, but is on its way to scoring its third weekly setback to thread (-3%).
“The bearish pressure derived from the flow of news around tariffs, with concerns about a possible commercial war, feeding the fears of weakening oil demand“BMI analysts said in a note published this Friday. In parallel, it was known that Trump repeated his promise to Increase US oil production.
Oil: What will the trend in the short term be
For Matías CattaruzziMr. Equity Analyst of ADCAPexpectations for the price of oil in the short term They remain bassists, with an estimated range of US $ 65-80 per barrel, which indicates high volatility.
“Trump’s energy policy will seek to deregulate the sector and expand the production of crude and gas In the US in 3 million barrels equivalent per day, but this could occur In the medium-long termand it depends on the investment plans of the companies and it is feasible for the majority to be natural gas production, “he defined.
For this expert there are various factors that They press the barrel down: the Global economic growth decelerationseen as the fall of Chinese crude imports (Your first annual contraction in two decades outside pandemic contexts), together with the increase in EVS and the real estate crisis in China. Also, to consider The expansion of the offer by non OPEC+ countries such as Brazil, Guyana, USA and Canada.
However, in the last hours there were geopolitical tensions, especially with The sanctions to Iran and Russiathat could counteract that trend and Provide bullish risks. For example, “The US pressure campaign on Iran, which seeks to reduce Iranian exports to zero With sanctions it could lead to a reduction in Iranian production by up to 1 million BBL/D, we could see return prices in the upper part of the range in a few months, “Cattaruzzi added.
From a “View ” that circulated from another Bolsa broker They explained: “Trump wants Iran to stop export has an increased production with Saudi Arabia and Russia to neutralize that impact of Iran ceasing to export 2.7 million barrels per day. ”
In this regard, they highlighted that Russia warned OPEC that as of April it will increase oil production, which will imply cheaper russia prices than Middle East competitors. “This scenario helps Trump to neutralize any eventuality in the Middle East and maintain controlled inflation Until the Fed makes a decrease decision before the first semester, “they analyzed.
If we focus on Argentina, analysts explained that This global context translates into greater volatility for crude oil exporters. “We recommend integrated companies such as YPF or diversified and gas as Pampa Energy. However, infrastructure development in Muerta Vacaas the project VMS and the expansion of Oldelvalcontinues to hold the growth of the local sector. In addition, the global demand of LNG It could be strong, which would mitigate part of the risks for Argentine projects, “Cattaruzzi closed.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
