Low of withholdings: exporters accelerate settlement but for now there was no “alluvion” of sales

Agroindustrial exporters accelerated the liquidation rhythm on the end of the week, but despite the temporary decline of retentions, a “flood” of sales is not yet warned by producers who suffer a cut in production estimates. Field dollars are key in the middle of the bid for the exchange rate. Trump accelerates efforts to seal a high fire between Russia and Ukraine And there are doubts among analysts due to the possible impact on the price of wheat. The alarming informality data.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced a temporary decline of retentions three weeks ago. After that conference, grain sales fell strongly and the registration of affidavits of foreign sales, waiting for higher details and the implementation of the measure.

“Today we are on an average of 100,000 tons per day, if you measure it, they are about 2.2 million, it is within what can be expected for a month of February,” explained the agricultural consultant Javier Preciado Patiño. In that sense, he said “there was no flood like when it was Massa’s first Soya dollar, there are some soybean and corn pore records for the coming campaign, but it is not too relevant.”

On the end of the week the agro -industrial exporters stepped on the accelerator. A source of great weight in the sector told the scope that On Friday at least $ 150 million were settled from export prefinancing.

In the midst of the debate due to exchange delay, that point is key to The Government because it needs currency and the proliferation of credit in dollars became a fundamental mechanism for the accumulation of reserves of the Central Bank in recent months.

More pricing problems?

Donald Trump wants a world with downward commodities. The president of the United States will meet with his Russian couple Vladimir Putin and in the previous one he said that there will be a high fire in Ukraine “in the not too distant future”: Will you impact corn and wheat prices?

Among analysts there is debate. When the war began a geopolitical problem was generated. Putin’s goal was supposed to take all cereal ports and thus handle the entire export flow. He partially achieved it, he lacked the most important port of Odessa.

Russia was aimed at that goal but a group of allies, countries in North Africa or the Middle East who are buyers of these grains made an express order so that the supply is not cut.

Months later, One achieved with the endorsement of the United Nations Organization to continue dispatching grains and not generate deepening the problem around food security. So there was never a total cut of exports.

In any case, the representatives of the agro -industrial sector believe that if Trump’s wishes come true, the event could bring a bearish trend again in prices. “If that happens, Russia and Ukraine will return to the market with large volumes, that is, greater offer, lower prices. ”

Informality, another problem for the sector

The wheat sector also has other concerns. One of the most relevant is informality in the production chain. The Argentine Federation of the Molinera industry published a report where at least one million tons were marketed informally.

The document warns that about 13.8% of the production of flour and Afrecho in Argentina is marketed informally. Entrepreneurs lose for unfair competition, workers for the least number of formal positions and the State on the fiscal account.

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On this point, they estimate that Loss of collection exceeds $ 270,000 millionfor the tax evasion of the Income Tax, the VAT, the Gross Income and the Tax to the Debit and Credits. The Molinera Industry Federation also calculated it: the impact of evasion It is equivalent to 22,572 feed cards for families with two children and 23,560 universal assignments per child.