He Government reacted to the doubts that had arisen in the market from the strong reduction of the “liquidity mattress” which has deposited in the Central Bank. In the prelude to a new payment of maturities of debt in non -renewed pesos during the last tender of the Ministry of Finance, The Treasury decided to anchor with $ 2.2 billion his account in the BCRA to be solvent for future commitments.
The movement was made Last Thursday and was reflected in the forms published by the monetary authority in the last hours. Thus, the most up -to -date official information now shows that that day The amount of pesos that the government has deposited in the central rose from $ 4.28 billion to $ 6.48 billion.
Strictly speaking, in the City they believe that The money was moved by the treasure from his deposits in commercial banks to his account in the BCRA. The presumption seems to be confirmed with the fact that Lefi holdings of the banks (which have as contraracted deposits) $ 1.5 billion dropped in public entities and $ 800,000 million in private ones.
The turn was completed the day before the liquidation of the last debt tender in pesos of the Palace of Finance. On Friday around $ 6.6 billion beat, of which about $ 1.4 billion were not refinanced in the aforementioned auction.
Debt in pesos and liquidity mattress
As he said Scope, The deposits in government pesos in the central had fallen at the end of January to their minimum level since May 2024. And, if there had not been the anchorage last Thursday, Friday’s payment would have dragged the amount of that account about $ 2.85 billion, the lowest value since April 2024.
Treasury deposits in the BCRA are considered as the “liquidity matt of debt in pesos given stiffness self -imposed by the economic team for the broad monetary base.
The shrinking of that liquidity mattress, as this means said, had aroused WARNINGS IN THE CITY about eventual tensions about the financial program and possible bullish pressures on rates of real interest.
As the monetary base is fixed at $ 47.7 billion since last July, one of the doubts who settled is Where the government would get the government to cancel debt in pesos when you no longer have more money deposited in the BCRA. Something that at this rate could happen within a relatively short period. In addition, the question arose: Could there be modifications to the monetary scheme?
The economic team signal
Given this situation, several officials had left the crossing of these debates during the past week. One of them was the director of the BCRA and advisor to Minister Luis Caputo, Federico Furiasewho raised in his social network account X that the “Mattress in treasure pesos” was $ 10 billion and that the dollar deposits were added (for about US $ 2,500 million). Besides, he said that money allows “supplying the demand for money and creditgiven the fixation of the broad monetary base ”.
In this regard Felipe Núñezdirector of the BICE and Caputo advisor, added that “in the next few days” it would be observed “how the Treasure account in the BCRA is recomposed.”
Why did officials say that the liquidity mattress was higher than the amount in pesos of the treasure account in the central? According to the Consultant 1816following the fiscal surplus, The government also had deposits in commercial banks. How many? According to the latest official data available, last November the central administration had another $ 9.1 billion.
However, 1816 clarified that “government deposits in commercial banks are usually used for working capital.” And he added that during the mandate of Alberto Fernández they averaged the $ 4 billion, less than half of what was in November 2024. “That could be detached that as Liquidity mattress in local currency The Treasury may have, in addition to the $ 3 billion in the BCRA (post liquidation of the tender), about $ 4 or $ 5 additional $ 5 billion in commercial banks that could be used without affecting working capital too much, ”he synthesized a reporter report published last Thursday. That is, if so, it would imply a lower number than the officials.
Anyway, the economic team decided to strengthen its message and migrate from its accounts at the Banco Nación and other commercial entities $ 2.2 billion to its account in the central. After that operation carried out on Thursday, It is expected that, when the data on Friday are published, the Treasury deposits in the BCRA will come back to the payment of the $ 1.4 Billones non -renewed In the last tender: to be confirmed, They would go around the $ 5 billion.
Doubts about the monetary scheme
Anyway, The government’s message does not miss the market doubts about the future of the monetary scheme. Is that this additional reserve of Treasury liquidity implies a major ceiling to face an eventual reissue of low renewal percentages in the placations of the Ministry of Finance. In the next three biweekly tenders, they will overcome $ 2.7 billion, $ 4.6 billion and $ 7.8 billion, respectively. But in monetary terms it may not mean an equation too different.
If the treasure pays debt with its deposits in commercial banks, “the Lefi stock will lower (Public banks buy with government deposits) instead of lowering the treasury deposits in the central one, ”said 1816. He added: “For the broad monetary base (BMA) it is the same.” It should be remembered that the BMA consists of the traditional monetary base (circulating in the public’s power and lace of the deposits) plus government deposits in the BCRA and Lefi’s stock held by the banks.
Thus, the consultant considered that, although the economic team could buy a few months of margin with a change in the lace policy, the growing nominal requirement of monetary base makes us “Increasingly closer to the government being forced at (i) flexible (allowing the economy to be remunerate in pesos against the purchase of dollars) oa (ii) maintain that limit but thoroughly going with their attempt that the population begins to ‘go to the supermarket’ with dollars “. And warned that, if the wide base stock, If people continue to transaction mostly in pesos, we will see “growing pressures on the real rate (The Treasury will have to pay more and more at the auctions) ”.
For 1816there is a problem. A higher real rate “can help lower inflation, but potentially also It can affect the level of activity and influence the perception of the market on the sustainability of public debt in local currency (even with fiscal surplus), ”he concluded.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
