Scientists: With a vaccination rate of 95 percent, the fourth wave is missing

“According to our simulations, an exponential increase in hospital numbers will start in October. If the current development continues, this will start even earlier and then intensify again in October,” says the new report by the group led by mobility researcher Kai Nagel the German Ministry of Education and Research.

The team regards the increase in the seven-day incidence that has recently been recorded as “worrying” because of the high relative increases. Only if the vaccines against Delta work significantly better than currently known or if a vaccination rate of 95 percent is achieved will a fourth wave in the simulations fail to appear. The model results “under all currently realistic conditions, a fourth wave among adults, which will be intensified with the relocation of activities indoors in autumn.”

Two quick tests per week are not sufficient

According to the report, the simulations for schools show that ventilation systems and the widespread use of rapid and / or PCR tests could reduce the infection dynamics. If such measures were implemented consistently, school closings or alternating lessons would not be necessary, it said. The two rapid tests per week, which are currently typical, are, however, by no means sufficient without additional measures.

According to the model, if the schools were opened after the summer vacation without protective measures, there would be a wave of infections among schoolchildren, which would lead to a wave in adults.

Scientists around the world are working on Covid-19 simulations using different approaches. These are based on certain assumptions and are subject to uncertainties. The team around Professor Nagel uses anonymized Berlin cell phone data to model the infection process. According to him, the results can at least be transferred to other large cities.

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