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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

The Ceres Leading Index rose in February for the second month in a row

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Already in January the ILC of the Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality it had had a positive record (0.1%), reversing the negative trend of the last two months of last year.

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For February, the 60% of the variables that make up the leading index had a positive behavior. However, from Ceres they warned that it is premature to affirm that the first quarter of economic activity in Uruguay will be positive, so the numbers for March are expected with expectation, where the effects of the prolonged drought they could be older.

Ceres economic activity index

Courtesy: @CERES_UY

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Ceres recalled that the lack of rain generated a downward revision of the official growth estimates for this year. “In June 2022, growth of 3% was projected, while expectations for February are for a 2% increase in output,” she said.

To calculate the ILC, a set of variables is used that contemplate the internal panorama and the international context, which are processed by the Center for Studies of Economic and Social Reality, which tend to change direction before the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Although the ILC does not allow quantitative projections on the levels of economic activity, it does allow giving signals on the sign of its evolution in order to be able to make better decisions about the direction of the economy.

Source: Ambito

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