The dollar reached its highest value in two months yesterday when closing the exchange day in 39,679 pesosaccording to the official interbank price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The currency rose 0.35% compared to Wednesday and accumulated a rise of 2.02% so far in March, remaining close to the expected 40 pesos, a value that has not been registered since December 27, 2022.
This occurred in the midst of a turbulent week for global markets, dragged into scenarios of uncertainty due to the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and liquidity problems Credit Suisse.
“It is possible that the turmoil in the financial markets have generated certain ‘fly to quality’, and that with this the currencies of Latin America have depreciated in the margin and in this line the Uruguayan peso would not be the exception”, considered the economist Nicholas Cichevskimanager C.P.A. Ferrere. However, he remarked that in general terms there have not been major changes in the price.
The price so far this month has been showing stability for the price of the dollar, which has been operating within the range of 39 pesos for more than two weeks.
Thus, it seems to move away from the ups and downs of January where it even broke the floor of 38 pesos, generating strong claims from the national productive sectors to the BCU for its contractive policy that drives the appreciation of the peso.
Since the beginning of 2023, however, the debate in the market has revolved around the exchange rate delay and the interest rate policy of the monetary authority.
The government recognizes a delay in the exchange rate of around 10%, a figure that private individuals raise to 12% and some even place it at 20%.
He big mac index produced by the renowned magazine The Economist established that the dollar in Uruguay should trade above 50 pesos, while the projections of economic agents is that it closes the year around 42 pesos.
The expectation of the local market is set now that the decision made by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week regarding the reference rates.