He Ceres Leading Index (ILC) it rose 0.2% in March, the institution announced, which represents the third consecutive increase, maintaining the growth prospects of the Uruguayan GDP for this year.
The ILC, however, was lower than that of February, when it reached 0.3%, the highest value in the three consecutive increases. However, with the new indicator, the positive trend of economic activity in the first quarter of the year, unlike what happened in the second half of 2022.
To calculate if the Leading Index, the Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality uses a set of variables that take into account the internal panorama and the international context, which tend to change direction before the country does. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Meanwhile, the Diffusion Index (ID) March was 50%, which shows that only half of the variables that make up the Index grew in the month, reported Ceres. This indicator considers the proportion of ILC variables with positive rates.
From the Center they were prudent about the economic outlook for this year since, they highlighted, 2023 began with mixed signals about the level of economic activity and the impact of the drought historical, which is expected for the next quarter.
The fall in exports, industry and collection up to now it has been offset by the recovery of real wages and the summer tourist season that had good numbers, although it did not reach the record levels projected at its start, in January.
The Leading Index by sectors
The sectors of economic activity linked to the agro-export complex showed seasonally adjusted growth in the last Ceres measurement, although with falls if the annual indicator is taken into account.
In it meat industryan improvement of 0.4% was reported in February compared to January for exports, but compared to the same month in 2022 the drop was 20%.
Meanwhile, the cattle slaughter it climbed 23.5% in February vs. January (seasonally adjusted), but fell 5.6% annually.
The export requests they rose 8.9% in February, but compared to last year the drop was 10.3%. This affected the activity of the Port of Montevideowhich registered a collapse of -14.4% in January compared to December regarding the movement of containers.
Source: Ambito
