The actions of the sector led by the senator Guido Manini Rios in this subject can be read in three dimensions: one that has to do with the priorities from each coalition partner, one ideological and another electoral.
They discussed this topic with scope.com political scientists Mauro House, Master’s degree from the London School of Economics in the United Kingdom, and Alvaro Garce Garciaprofessor of the Department of Political Sciences of Udelar.
“Cabildo Abierto has been, without a doubt, the partner that has tried the most to set its own profile,” recalled Casa. In the first years of management, with the pandemic and the drive to have managed to get the Broad Front out of the government, the party had a more aligned behavior. “He marked his discrepancies but ended up accompanying”, as happened with the Urgent Consideration Law (LUC), Budget Law or Accountability.
A kind of “pendulum game, support and mark distance ”, according to Casa. Now, his rejection of the reform would represent a significant break in the coalition dynamic.
Ideological differences and priorities between the National Party and the Cabildo Abierto
Although the social security reform is one of the most important flags of the government’s management, “it does not have the same priority for the different partners of the coalition,” observed the political scientist.
“Reform not part of the main concerns of the party nor does it target the interest groups that the Cabildo Abierto represents, which has an evident and close relationship with the military corporation,” said Casa, who also stated that this “leads to a scenario where to vote on this reform, CA asks for things In return”.
But also, it is not only a difference in priorities, there is also a ideological incompatibility between the space and the project that the government seeks to approve. “Cabildo Abierto is not ideologically or programmatically aligned with a good part of this reform,” said the political analyst.
However, the truth is that the party led by Manini Ríos cannot refuse to vote for it openly because there is a commitment signed in November 2019. So, according to Casa, “what they are doing is saying ‘well, if they want our votes, that it costs them’”, A kind of “figurine exchange”.
Cabildo Abierto tries to “sell dearly”
For the political scientist, “if these conversations are taking place, it is because Manini Ríos intends to have the reform approved.” Meanwhile, the senator could point to “sell as high as possible” the accompaniment of your party.
And it is that although the pension reform is not among its priorities, other issues are, such as the house arrest for people over 65 –including those who are tried for causes related to human rights– or the reparation law for victims of left-wing political violence prior to the dictatorship.
Initiatives that are uncomfortable for some shareholders of the coalition. “They are not a priority for any of the partners, except for Cabildo Abierto,” stressed Casa, who in any case stressed that the PN of Luis Lacalle Pou He is not averse to these proposals but “what he has is a matter of schedule control and of who sets the priorities of the government”.
Garcé García, for his part, opined: “I don’t think the government has mishandled the timing of this. In any case, what is happening and helps to understand why they are so stubborn in CA is that it has not been easy for any of the partners of the PN put issues on the agenda”.
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The lobbying agenda has other items in the pipeline, such as the project that the party has been promoting since the end of 2020 to restructure the debts of individuals or law joint tenancy –that the Colorado Party is willing to vote–.
“Manini Ríos’s reasoning is to force the Presidency to grant support to initiatives that until now had not received support due to the type of asymmetric coalition functioningvery focused on the priorities of the PN and with relatively little space for the aspirations of the partners”, analyzed the Udelar teacher.
The reform of social security in an electoral key
The bottom line, for Casa, is that Cabildo Abierto is not “enthusiastic” with the reform, “because it affects the interests of the military corporation that it represents and because it considers that it is very unpopular and like a risk for the next elections”.
For his part, Garcé García explained: “For them, the reform has an obvious political cost for the coalition.” And he added: “They argue that it is not urgent, that it should be done in the first or second year of the next government cycle and thus minimize the cost, and they affirm that doing it now is like a kind of (political) suicide for the government“.
“They are beginning to see that the electoral times are approaching and look optimistically at the 2024 elections,” said Casa, who also pointed out that it is the only party in the coalition that currently has a Presidential candidate and one already consolidated figure as is Manini Ríos.
In addition, the lack of definitions in the inmates of the National Party -which cannot present Lacalle Pou again- and the Colorado Party, begins to generate “electoral incentives” for CA.
Casa recalled that, until now, the coalition has worked almost perfectly in Parliament. “He has not had major parliamentary failures,” she said. Meanwhile, if finally the lobbying deputies do not accompany and the reform is shipwrecked, “It would be the first break” in the dynamics of the coalition.
For now, the tough negotiations continue between the president Luis Lacalle Pouthe Secretary of the Presidency, Alvaro Delgadothe senator Guido Manini Rios and the president of Cabildo Abierto, Guillermo Domenech. “The four of them are going to finish cooking this,” Casa concluded.
Source: Ambito
