As a result of said agreement, Petro distributed the command of the ministries between his own and allies.
However, the crisis came last month, due to the official proposal to reform the health system, which is under debate in Congress.
At the end of April, Petro declared that the coalition was coming to an end and announced that he would reconsider the road map of his mandate, since the parties with which he put together his legislative coalition “did not heed the call of the citizens at the polls” and announced a new, more sympathetic cabinet.
The end of the alliance raised some questions about what it will be like to govern with a more “own” cabinet, what will be the effects on local elections and what future awaits the Executive in Congress.
“The government’s message is to have a cabinet committed to change. It was said that it is its own cabinet that weakens it, but in reality now it has a team that will accompany it in its program,” the doctor told Télam in Colombian Social Sciences Javier Calderón.
The researcher considered that these modifications are not “a weakness, but a strength” and stressed that there were no negative repercussions on the economic variables or “abrupt changes” but, on the contrary, “the dollar fell and the indicators remain positive.”
For his part, Colombian political consultant Felipe Mendoza said in a dialogue with Télam that “the transition cabinet, of national unity, has already passed.”
“Now there is a cabinet that is much more similar to Petro. This will generate distance with the traditional parties, because as much as they want to be close by the bureaucracy and the ministries, it will be difficult for them to present that to their people, to their base. “, he estimated.
“Now there is a cabinet that is more ‘inside than outside’. Yes, there are elements that are not part of Petro’s backbone, but these allow him a more cordial relationship with various sectors, because he knows that if not the opposition will have arguments to accuse him of radicalization,” he added.
The breaks in the ruling alliance occur just over a month after starting the process of registering candidates for the October 29 elections, when governors, mayors, local deputies and councilors are elected for four years.
The electoral process is seen as a first “plebiscite” for the administration, but it also has its own components that can separate local and national politics.
“It will be the first validation of the Government. The territorial political forces will be reconfigured with a view to the 2026 presidential elections,” said the director of the “think tank” Punta de Lanza.
The consultant pointed out that there is a wear and tear on Petro’s figure, for his own reasons and because of the opposition’s game, as well as problems in official communication “beyond his constituents.”
The latest polls reflected a sharp increase in the president’s disapproval, which reached 57% in April.
Mendoza also considered that there is a limit to change: “The country is not left-wing.”
For this reason, the other parties in withdrawal from the pro-government alliance say, according to Mendoza, that they are not going “to assume the wear and tear of some reforms and that they are not based on the ideas of many people.”
In addition, in the territories, “the president’s party is mired in a crisis of representation. There are no candidates representing the Government. This has allowed a crisis to be generated from the bottom up, which is complemented by the decisions of the parties.” , he pointed.
However, he clarified that in these elections the voters see “an opportunity to generate solutions in their territories” and that “it is not nationalized or ideologised so easily.”
Meanwhile, in Congress the challenges will not be minor for the ruling party.
The Historical Pact has 20 of the 108 seats in the Senate and 28 of the 188 in the House of Representatives (lower), but in addition to its own, it had two other groups of parties.
On the one hand, there are the legislators of Alianza Verde, Comunes -former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)-, in addition to the indigenous and territorial minorities, which provide 20 senators (40 in total) and 42 representatives (70 in total). , as indicated by Calderón in an article by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag).
A second group was made up of spaces that announced or are evaluating a withdrawal.
The Liberal Party added 14 senators and 33 representatives, the Conservative 13 senators and 27 representatives, and the Partido de la U 10 and 16 respectively.
Despite the exodus, they did not rule out specific alignments. Calderón assured that “although they were affected by the ministerial shake-up, they did not declare themselves in opposition and that indicates that they are willing to reach agreements with the Government.”
“La U” left the door open to support or reject the reforms promoted by the Executive and a sector of the liberals, “the group of 18”, expressed their adherence to the Petro health reform despite the refusal of the leader of the party, former president César Gaviria, to accompany the measure.
This week, the party ratified its support for the leader and in the coming days they will evaluate their position against Petro.
Regarding the government’s strategy, Calderón said that “it was oriented towards negotiating one by one. Today it already has robust benches from the outset with Alianza Verde and Comunes to achieve the simple majority it needs to pass the reforms.”
“Simultaneously, Petro called on civil society to mobilize, to value what is happening, but also to put pressure on Congress,” he estimated.
Only the Evangelist Party, the Democratic Center and Radical Change remained on the opposition side.
When asked if the government will be able to continue approving core reforms, Mendoza recalled that “the parties are distancing themselves from Petro’s radicalism, they are expanding their ability to negotiate and blackmail” the ruling party.
Source: Ambito
