He dollar in Uruguay It continues to be a problem that both exporters and government authorities are closely following, but without being able to find a satisfactory solution, much less definitive while the exchange rate delay continues to deepen: while moderate expectations place the exchange rate at the strip of 39 pesosFor almost four months the currency has not been able to reach that price in the local market.
On May 3, the official price of the dollar closed at 39,074 pesos, after the third consecutive day of rise and the second to stay above the floor of 39 pesos, according to information from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). To find more than two consecutive days above those values, you have to go back to mid-March.
Since then, and far from the expectations that foresaw an improvement in the exchange rate equilibrium —above all, with inflationary control and the end of the restrictive monetary policy that the BCU had been carrying out—, the dollar he could not return to 39 pesos; in fact, the 38-peso range became the immediate price target after starting to move mostly at 37 pesos.
Since that May 3rd they passed 114 days —Some less if only exchange days are considered. Since the last time he was in the 40-peso range, it has been 240 days, eight months. And the dollar, far from recovering, it seems to be increasingly comfortable at low levels for the needs of the export sectors.
Lowered projections and expectations that remain unfulfilled
In that sense, the last Economic Expectations Survey of the BCU evidences a correction of the market forecasts regarding the exchange rate for the end of the year: analysts expect the US currency to trade at 39.61 pesos for December of this year.
The problem is that, as much as the projections continue to be adjusted downward, the dollar it still can’t even get close to 38 pesos consistently. In short, the price has not been at the minimum expected values for a long time, despite the increasingly moderate future scenarios.
Meanwhile, and according to the director of the Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres), Ignacio Munyo, the value of dollar functional for the government —in terms of inflationary control and compliance with the target range— does not exceed 38.5 pesos. Therefore, it would be difficult for the currency to return to the 39-peso range, and even more difficult for the expectations of market analysts to be fulfilled.
another down day
He dollar closed yesterday at 37,686 pesos after drop 0.06%marking the second consecutive day down and moving away, once again, from the 38-peso range.
With this setback, which adds to a series of ups and downs, the US currency diluted the rise accumulated during August, which remained at 0.69%, despite initially threatening to be much higher. Meanwhile, the depreciation It is important so far this year, reaching 5.95% per year, something that is accentuated year-on-year, with a decrease that reaches 6.72%.
Source: Ambito
