After Prigozhin’s Death: What Happens to His Wagner Private Army?

Two days after the alleged death of Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash, the circumstances remain unclear. Yesterday, the Kremlin denied giving the order for the alleged death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. “This is an absolute lie,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The case of the plane crash must be treated “on the basis of facts”.

No evidence yet

There is still no definitive evidence that Prigozhin was on board the plane that crashed Wednesday night. However, it is “very likely” that he is dead, the British Ministry of Defense said yesterday. “The demise of Prigozhin would almost certainly have a profoundly destabilizing effect on the Wagner group,” the ministry said in a military intelligence update published on the social media platform Twitter (X).

According to US military experts, Prigozhin’s death probably means the end of the Wagner Group as a quasi-independent private army. The loss of the central leader weakens their ability to counter the campaign by the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry to destabilize and destroy the group after its June 24 rebellion, the US Institute for War Studies, ISW, analyzed on Thursday evening.

The ministry has reportedly already set up private military groups of its own, which recruit current and former Wagner personnel, it said. It is about the control of Wagner operations abroad. It is unclear whether the Kremlin wants to dissolve Wagner completely or set it up as a smaller organization under the Ministry of Defense.

It is possible as a third option that Wagner will remain as a quasi-independent group with a new leadership loyal to the Kremlin, but according to the ISW it is unlikely.

The US experts pointed out that Wagner’s commanders’ council has not publicly commented on the group’s future since Prigozhin’s alleged deadly plane crash. This could speak for a general chaos within the command ranks or for an explicit silence order from Russian authorities, wrote the ISW. Vladimir “Putin’s almost certain assassination of Wagner’s leadership has made it very clear that the Kremlin will be outwardly hostile to those trying to secure the independence of their own parallel military structures,” the analysis said.

A successor to Prigozhin personally chosen by Putin would in turn run the risk of incurring the wrath of the Wagner base. After the Wagner uprising, the Kremlin will likely judge any future establishment of military groups based on its experience with Wagner and Prigozhin, Washington said. The alleged murder of the mercenary leader becomes a standing threat to anyone trying to set up similar parallel structures.

Kadyrov mourns Prigozhin on Telegram

Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov has publicly mourned the alleged death of Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. “His death is a great loss for the whole state,” he wrote on Friday night on his Telegram channel, shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of a tragedy. He expressed his condolences to the family.

Kadyrov and Prigozhin were both involved with troops under their command in Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine. They were united in their criticism of the Russian military leadership for a while, but ended up falling out badly. The mutiny initiated by Prigozhin in June, Kadyrov promised to put down “with harsh methods”. However, there was no conflict between the Wagner and Achmat units, and Prigozhin called off the uprising himself.