He dollar in Uruguay seems to live its own early spring, with three consecutive days on the rise and a price that is close to the elusive range of 38 pesos. So far this month, accumulate a rise of 0.76%.
There is still a long way to go in September —and a total of 18 exchange days in which, as seen in previous months, anything can happen—, but the first few days seem encouraging and are received with some moderate optimism among analysts. and market agents. It is that so far this month, the dollar accumulate a positive variation of 0.76%.
The figure becomes more significant if one considers that August saw the largest monthly rise in the US currency since February, with an “end-to-end” increase of 0.44%. For the moment, the three days of September closed with increases in the value of the dollar.
According to economic analysts consulted by Scope.com, the cut in the benchmark interest rates by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) —both recently implemented and the projections already advanced by the market and by the authorities of the central house— have a considerable influence on a greater inclination towards dollars on the part of investors, which has contributed to raising the price for the increase in demand.
In any case, they also agree that it is too early to talk about a Change of trendwhere he “ironed” dollar has been predominant in recent weeks. “At the moment, the dollar accumulates only three daily increases compared to the Uruguayan peso,” he said in this regard. Giuliano Cantisani, senior consultant of Economic Analysis and Forecast Service in C.P.A. Ferrere, and recalled that “episodes of this type have been seen in previous months that have been subsequently reversed.”
In any case, one abrupt depreciation of the Uruguayan peso It is not the most likely scenario, quite the opposite. Therefore, the eventual rise in the dollar in the country it will be progressive, and without reaching the expectations of sectors such as the exporter, which claims values in the US currency that have not been reached since the end of December 2022.
How did the dollar close yesterday?
He dollar It rose 0.32% compared to the last day and closed at 37.876 pesos, according to the official price of the BCU, thus climbing for the third consecutive day within the range of 37 Uruguayan pesos.
In the first days of September, the US currency already accumulates a monthly rise of 0.76%, although so far in 2023, it has fallen by 5.48% compared to the end of 2022. At the year-on-year level, the fall is of 6.98%.
Meanwhile, the Ceres Leading Index (ILC) produced by the Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres) it fell 0.1% in July, noting its third consecutive decline and signaling the beginning of a contractionary phase of the economy, mainly due to the impact of the drought, the competitiveness problems that affect exports and the exchange difference with Argentina.
Source: Ambito
