This is how a team of experts from European research institutes concluded, who carried out the first systematic stability inspection of the current state of the ice cap of the West Antarctica. However, no signs have yet been found of a irreversible regressionwarned the study, published in The Cryosphere.
“In recent years, more and more ice has been lost in the Antarcticaso it is feared that a inflection point and a irreversible collapse and in the long term of the ice sheet of the West Antarctica“he explained Ronja Reeseof the Potsdam Institute for the Climate Impact Research (PIK) and of the Northumbria University (United Kingdom).
“The results of our studies convey two messages: first, although several glaciers in the Antarctica are receding at the moment, we still find no signs of a irreversible and self-reinforcing recoilwhich is soothing. However, our calculations also clearly indicate that the onset of a Irreversible retreat of the ice sheet in West Antarctica It is possible if the current state of the climate is maintained,” he highlighted.
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West Antarctica: causes of ice loss
He main driver of ice loss in the West Antarctica is he relatively warm ocean water that amplifies the thaw under ice shelves, which are floating extensions of the ice sheet on land.
He thaw of these platforms can increase the ice loss, as it accelerates the land sections of the ice sheet. Therefore, the Antarctic margin, with its ground lines, the area where land ice and floating ice connect, is a key indicator of ice sheet health.
A accelerated recoil of the ground lines could indicate a next collapse of large marine regions of the ice sheet of the West Antarcticathat is, the parts of the ice sheet that are stranded below sea level.
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BBC
How was the scientists’ investigation?
Using the most advanced models of the ice sheet, the researchers not only closely inspected the signs of irreversible regression of the marine sectors of the antarctic ice sheet currently, but also carried out simulations to investigate How the ice sheet would evolve in the next 10 thousand years if current conditions did not change.
These hypothetical experiments, the results of which are published in the journal ‘The Cryosphere’, indicate that, even without a additional heating to the current one, it is possible irreversible collapse of some marine regions of the ice sheet of the West Antarctica.
Given the ice reacts very slowly to changes in temperaturethe authors conclude that, in their simulations, the collapse would occur, at the earliest, within 300 to 500 yearswith the current climate forcing. The total collapse would take between centuries and millennia.
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Green Future
“The issue with the Rising sea levels from the Antarctica It is not that changes would occur overnight as an immediate threat to coastal communities. The melting process would take place over hundreds or thousands of years.“he stressed Julius Garbeof the P.I.K..
However, he added that “the cause could be the human actions todaysince they have the power to unleash and commit a 10,000 year future several meters of global sea level rise. And stronger warming in the future would even accelerate this process“.
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Future of West Antarctica and the role of climate action
Changes in ice discharge from the Antarctica remain one of the greater uncertainties in future projections of the global sea level rise.
“Antarctic ice is our last inheritance from the pastmillions of years old and often coined as ‘eternal’ ice. But our work proves it – he noted Ricarda Winkelmannof the P.I.K.-, although the current ice loss may still be reversiblea destabilization of marine sectors of the ice sheet could start a long-term ice loss, slow but sure“.
“Current climate change could already be enough to tip the balancewhich is worrying. However, since the West Antarctica has not yet been destabilized, there is still possibility of mitigating at least part of the risk through a ambitious climate action“he concluded.
Source: Ambito
