He Ceres Leader Index (ILC) grew a 0.1% in October, marking the first increase in four months. Specialists agree that the indicator shows that the downward trend in activity in Uruguay has already been overcome, and it is possible to expect the positive sign to continue until the end of the year.
After three negative months—June, July and August—and a September that remained stable, without any type of variation—the ILC was 0.0%—October indicates that the negative trend in economic activity has been left behind. Although last month’s ILC did not mark a significant increase, with barely 0.1% growth, they allow us to think about an end of the year with an upward growth level, in case the numbers remain in the last two months of 2023.
Anyway, since Center for Studies of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres) warned that growth projections for this year have been revised downwards for months, mainly due to the impact of the drought, the exchange difference with Argentina and the competitiveness problems that the country has; factors to which is now also added the stoppage of the refinery of the National Administration of Fuel, Alcohol and Portland (Ancap).
He Diffusion Indexmeanwhile, was 55%, which indicates that more than half of the variables grew in the month, which reinforces that the positive variations were on average greater than the negative ones.
The ILC is a Ceres indicator, which takes into account a set of variables that consider the internal panorama and the international context, which tend to change direction before the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)so it can give a signal of the trend of economic activity in real time.
What do the main sectoral indicators indicate?
Likewise, Ceres compiled the variations in the leading indicators, which are also considered in the preparation of the ILC.
In this sense, the institute highlighted that the exports of goods they grew 14% year-on-year in October, increasing for the first time in nine months; and that the volume of task It also registered an increase compared to October 2022.
Refering to Industrial production, This registered an increase in August compared to July, but fell in the interannual comparison. The same thing happened in the collection of VAT on the part of the General Tax Directorate (DGI) in September; although the movement of buses in Three Crosses had the opposite behavior—it fell seasonally adjusted but increased year-on-year.
Also, the electrical energy consumption It grew in residences and fell in industries, in September, seasonally adjusted. The sale of diesel and gasoline, meanwhile, was lower in September than in August. Also the construction recorded a contraction in the second quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year.
Finally, ticket sales at Montevideo and metropolitan area increased in September, seasonally adjusted.