Although they see the appreciation of the dollar in recent weeks as a “good sign”, the sector understands that it still does not compensate for the lost competitiveness.
The export sectors They are still worried about exchange delay that is not finished being corrected in Uruguay, Despite the good performance of dollarover the last month, so they hope it aligns with international trends.
The increase cumulative 3.68% that he had dollar its price during October is good news, as is its arrival at the 40 peso range after more than 10 months. Everyone agrees on this, even the export sectors. However, for the latter, it is still not enough.
That is why “the exchange rate continues to be among the main concerns of the export sectors,” as expressed Margarita Varela, executive secretary of the Union of Exporters of Uruguay (UEU), in dialogue with Radio Montecarlo. Although the significant recovery in the price of dollar It is “a good sign”, it still “is not enough to compensate for the fall of the last year.”
“We need the exchange rate to continue increasing because what happened is that while it fell here, in other competing countries such as Australia, or our buyers like China, increased,” said Varela, and explained that “this means that our products reach the destination countries more expensiveand in turn, that the exporter when he receives the Dollars and brings them to Uruguay, you they yield less weight to pay production costs, labor, etc.”
Although he did not demand any particular measure on the part of the government or the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) for the correction of exchange delay, The executive secretary of the EU did maintain that “it is important that the dollar is aligned so that we can compete better.”
Can the dollar continue to rise?
The truth is that, even when the dollar managed to exceed the range of 40 pesos, the analysts consulted by the BCU still consider that this is the value that the US currency will have at the end of the year. Likewise, many others point out that more than an upward trend, it is a rebound compared to the fall it suffered during 2023. Therefore, and taking into account the readings and projections, it might be thought that there is not much room for growth left.
Along the same lines, the investment bank BCP Securities recently highlighted the resilience of the Uruguayan peso even in the face of global economic uncertainty. This also shows that a sudden change in the exchange balance at the local level is not being foreseen in the short or medium term. Much less with the possibility that, sooner rather than later, the BCU will end the cycle of reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) —which would keep rates high and the “price of money” convenient in terms of yield.
However, the behavior of the dollar globally —increasingly stronger—, and how this will affect the local exchange market.
Source: Ambito
