The inflation expectations of entrepreneurs remained at 7%, above the target range established by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), according to the latest technical bulletin of the Statistics National Institute (INE), putting an end to two consecutive cuts in projections.
In this way, the private sector’s forecasts continue not to match the level of the CPI, which, although it rose in the last month, stood at 4.3% year-on-year, well below the projections arising from the Business Expectations Survey (EEA).
Specifically, the median of the inflation expected by businessmen for 2023 was 7% and were at the same level for the moving year closed in September 2024, as in the previous measurement of the INE.
However, there was a reduction of 30 basis points with respect to the moving year closed in September 2025, a period for which they anticipate a CPI of 7.2%.
With respect to the expected evolution of the operating costs of the companies, the median remained at 8% both for 2023, and for the moving year ending in 2024 and the same period in 2025, without variations with respect to last month’s expectations.
Expectations still do not accompany the BCU’s gaze
The lowering of the inflation at an annual level, despite expecting a rebound in the last quarter, as anticipated by the president of the BCU, Diego Labat, is still not reflected in business expectations, despite the fact that the CPI It has been within the target range for five consecutive months, that is, between 3% and 6%.
Regarding this situation, the Development Studies Center (CED) admitted that “there are grounds” for the inflation be consolidated during 2024 at “a new level”, estimating that it could remain between 4.5% and 6%, in line with what the BCU.
In this analysis, they highlighted that the Underlying inflation It is at 3.8% year-on-year, which is why they spoke of a “consolidation of the disinflationary process of the economy towards target levels.”