The Central Bank of Uruguay published the Economic Expectations Survey and the Inflation Survey, where it recorded a general perception of stability.
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) published the surveys of Economic expectations and Inflation Expectations corresponding to November, which reflected a projection of relative stability for the country in terms of inflation, he growth and the dollar, with respect to previous surveys.
Market expectations regarding the economic direction of Uruguay They remained without major changes in November compared to what they anticipated in October, according to the information collected by the BCU among various actors—institutions and independent professionals.
In this sense, the median of the responses regarding the inflation that they project for this 2023 remained at 5.2%, just like what happened last month. The considerations regarding the increase in prices in 2024 and 2025 also did not change, where those consulted pointed to a 6.5% in the next 12 months and a 6.1% in the next 24 months. Both responses coincide with what was projected in October.
Regarding the growth expected in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)expectations also remained stable, with a minimal downward adjustment only in the projections for the end of this year: from the 0.8% forecast in October, the market now foresees a 0.7% growth. For 2024, however, they continue to postulate an expansion of the 3.1%, while by 2025 they maintained the 2.5%.
Projections on the dollar
In the Economic Expectations Survey, the BCU also consults on the projections regarding the exchange rate expected. In that sense, the surveyed economic actors raised their forecasts regarding the value of the dollar, although the variation was slight: from expecting a median price of 40 pesos in December, they now expect one of 40.10 pesos.
Likewise, among the responses surveyed, none exceeded an expectation of one dollar at 41 pesos, while the lowest expected value was 38 pesos. By the end of November, the median was at 39.95 pesos.
For the end of next year, meanwhile, the projections for the price of the dollar were located at 42.50 pesos; while by 2025, in 44.90 pesos. In October, these responses had resulted in medians of 42.35 and 44.50 pesos, respectively. In the first case there was an increase of 15 cents, and in the second, 40 cents.
Source: Ambito
