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Has the dollar been ironed again?

Has the dollar been ironed again?
December 8, 2023 – 12:26

The US currency registered ups and downs that keep it relatively stable in the $39 range, but eyes are on what may happen with the exchange rate in Argentina starting Monday.

He dollar in Uruguay is heading towards a trend of relative stability so far in December, with slight ups and downs that keep it above the range of 39 pesos, given a better present of the currency at a global level but with the pressures of the exchange rate difference with Argentina.

He dollar managed to gain ground in the range of 39 pesos after closing the day on Thursday with a slight increase of 0.15%. In this way, and with a quote of 39,127 pesos according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)the US currency maintains some stability in its value after a November that recorded the second worst monthly decline of the year.

In any case, and in the face of what is shaping up to be a new “ironed” dollar, he exchange delay begins to rise levels once again on the list of concerns of the export sectors and the authorities in terms of monetary policy. But also from the merchants of the departments of the coast, who see how exchange gap with Argentina It increases due to the behavior of the exchange rate in both countries.

At the moment, the greenback accumulates a rise of 0.02% so far in December, while in 2023 it has a 2.36% drop and remains far from the projections that market players made for this time of year.

The global and regional context influences the perception of the exchange rate

Although the local exchange rate remains above 39 pesos, these ups and downs that it has been experiencing in December, together with the fact that the price is almost one peso below market expectations, contribute to deepening concern about the exchange delay.

Meanwhile, the global dollar continues a few days of disparate variations although with slight recovery – after what was also a terrible November -: the dollar index fell yesterday from 104,108 to 103,504 units (-0.58%); but today it already reached maximums of 104,265 units. These values ​​remain at the same time that investors await the employment data of USA corresponding to November, to analyze the impact they will have on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, the eyes of Uruguayan analysts are focused on what could happen with the exchange rate in Argentina after the assumption of Javier Milei the next Sunday. On the one hand, the future dollar in the neighboring country fell 2% by the end of the year, but estimates for December are still almost double the official price of the wholesale currency. That is, the markets expect a devaluation of almost 100%.

Although many estimates suggest that the path is that of exchange rate unification —which would lower the Dolar blue or parallel, the main problem for businesses on the Uruguayan coast due to the exchange difference—, the truth is that the maintenance of the stocks It can lead to the parallel currency not going down in the short term, but quite the opposite. This means that Argentina It continues to be a very cheap country in the face of rising Uruguayan prices, which, in addition, see their exchange rate delayed.

Source: Ambito

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