The inflation expectations were reduced and are at a level just above the ceiling of the target range established by the government, according to the latest survey of analysts published today by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The forecasts for the survey BCU of this month indicate that 2024 will close with a inflation of 6.05%, a reduction of 39 basis points compared to the 6.44% suggested by the median response in December.
Meanwhile, the expectations of analysts converge towards 6% for the next 24 months, with that same percentage for both 2025 and 2026, thus reaching the ceiling of the range proposed by the government as an objective.
When evaluating the responses individually, the most optimistic ventured a CPI of 5.25% by 2024, while the most pessimistic indicated that it will be around 6.92%. In turn, the maximum for 2025 and 2026 was 7.40%, while the lowest response was 5% for 2025 and 4.60% in 2026.
Expectations remain above government forecast
Although the analysts’ forecasts were close to the ceiling of the target range, it is worth noting that the Macroeconomic Coordination Committee projected a inflation of around 4.9% for this year and 5.3% by the end of 2025, when carrying out an evaluation during the last meeting of 2023 between representatives of the BCU and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).
Against this, it is worth noting that the estimates of Exante revealed yesterday also anticipate a CPI close to 4% in the first part of the year, although with a rebound in the second half, which would lead it to close above the target range.
In this sense, the Economic Research Center (Cinve) published a study weeks ago where it warned that it expects inflationary escalation starting in the middle of the year, which would take the indicator towards levels close to 7% starting in July.
Source: Ambito
