The economic activity is going through a growth phase, according to the brand new Ceres Leader Index(ILC), which showed an increase of 0.3% in December and achieved its third consecutive increase, confirming that the last quarter of 2023 was positive.
He ILC It also works as a predictor of the level of activity, which allows us to anticipate that the improvement will continue at the beginning of 2024, for which positive factors are expected such as those associated with the end of the drought and the cutting of the exchange difference with Argentina, among others.
From Ceres They also stated that the Diffusion Index (ID), which indicates the proportion of the variables that make up the ILC that grew in the month, was 70%, which proves that the increase in the index is based on a broad base of variables.
The survey indicated that the first semester is already behind us, with the shock of the drought, the price gap with Argentina, the decrease in exports and the recent stoppage of the refinery Ancap, which started in September.
However, the ILC noted that the economy will have a “marginal growth” in 2023, closer to 0% than 1%, while the labor market remains firm, with almost 40 thousand more employees than a year ago.
The main sectoral indicators
Regarding the main sectoral indicators, the study reflected that the exports in 2023 they fell 13% year-on-year due to the collapse in sales of soy, while the cattle slaughter.
In turn, the Industrial production November was lower than October (seasonally adjusted), but it grew year-on-year, while the construction fell in the third quarter of 2023 and the collection of the DGI by VAT It fell seasonally in November, although it was higher than a year ago.
In turn, the consumption of electric power fell in residences and rose in industries, while sales of gasoil and of naphtha They decreased monthly and year-on-year.
Outlook for this year
At the same time, Ceres expressed that “for this year a rebound in activity is expected given that the negative effects of the drought and negative pressures will begin to give way”, among which he identified the exchange difference with the neighboring country and the return of the La Teja refinery in Ancap.
In turn, exports and industrial production are expected to be driven by full production of UPM II and the realization of new investments.
“In any case, problems of competitiveness for the agro-export industry and tourism,” anticipated the economists who prepared the index.