He dollar in Uruguay continues its path of recovery after several days of decline in which it even traded in the range of 38 pesos for the first time in almost two months. With the fourth consecutive increase, the local market is closely observing the movements of the currency globally, which remains stable.
With an increase of 0.16%, the dollar begins to move a little more firmly and managed to return to the 39 peso rangein the midst of an international context that should contribute to the appreciation of the US currency in the local market – but which, as was seen last week, does not guarantee positive behavior.
In this way, and according to the data of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)the currency closed at 39.05 pesos after marking its fourth consecutive day of improvement in its price, trading in a range that it had achieved since last January 19 — and that, previously, it had maintained since the beginning of December, for more than a month and a half.
With this behavior, the dollar accumulate one monthly and annual variation of 0.07% – it managed to reverse a decline that reached 0.82% – and its value is 0.03 pesos more than at the end of 2023.
The international market, waiting for the Fed
As usual, the global market wait for new signs of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding the pace that the reference interest rate cut may adopt.
For this, the different macroeconomic data of the country are key: last week, greater growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than expected and inflation that remained stable during December pointed to a scenario in which the central bank is in no rush to make changes to its current monetary policy. This week, the data on job offers that will be published today by the Department of Labor Statistics.
In this context, the index dollar, which measures the performance of the currency in relation to a basket of six other international currencies, closed yesterday with a rise of 0.03% and a value of 103.49 units, remaining relatively stable. It is that the operators maintain a moderate expectation before the start of a new meeting of the Federal Committee Open Market (FOMC)which will be between today and tomorrow.
Since it is expected that the Fed keep interest rates stable, markets will focus on the tone adopted by the president of the organization, Jerome Powell at Wednesday’s press conference and any hint of rate cuts in the near future.
Depending on the tool FedWatch of CME Group, Markets are currently pricing the chance that the US central bank will begin cutting rates in March at 46.6%, up from 73.4% a month ago, as data has reinforced the view that the US economy keep resisting.