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The dollar fell 0.19% on the week, can it return to $40?

The dollar fell 0.19% on the week, can it return to $40?

He dollar completed a downward week, with a decline of 0.19%, remaining at 39.063 pesos and a few cents from the range of 38 pesos, according to the price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).

Despite this behavior, in the context of a bearish February, can the dollar at a price above 40 pesos? The market believes that this will happen this year, but to reach that situation we will have to wait a few months.

It is that, according to the last Economic Expectations Survey (EEA) of the BCU, the US currency would reach that level in the second half. Analysts, who anticipated a value of 39.20 pesos by the end of this month, above the current level, believe that in July of this year it will reach 40.20 pesos.

Even the median response from analysts predicts that dollar reach 41.40 pesos by the end of the year, reach 43.30 pesos in 2025 and even up to 45.70 pesos by the end of 2026.

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A dollar ironed so far this year

So far in 2024, the dollar It had ups and downs, but maintained a relatively flat price. In its first round, on January 2, it was quoted at 39,092 pesos and had its highest point on the 9th of that month, with a value of 39,439 pesos. Meanwhile, its lowest level occurred on the 23rd of that month, when its value was 38,685 pesos.

With this behavior, the banknote accumulates a depreciation of 0.26% in February, but an increase of 0.11% compared to the last day of 2023. Regarding the “ironed” price, the CPA economist Ferrere, Giuliano Cantisani, he anticipated Ambit that “no major changes are expected on the exchange rate, that would maintain relative stability, accumulating a slight depreciation during the year.”

The global scenario and the local impact

At the international level, the dollar index It fell to 103.93 units this Friday and had its first weekly drop of the year, after having reached its three-month maximum on February 14, when it reached 104.97 units.

Now, investors paused purchases of the US currency due to expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) you can start trimming the interest rates later than expected.

At the local level, the BCU paused the downward cycle of the interest rate, keeping it at 9% during the first meeting of the year. Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), pointing out that the inflation expectations continue to fall and converge towards the target range.

Source: Ambito

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