The Central Bank of Uruguay published the monthly indicator, which reflected a reduction in GDP at the end of 2023.
The economic activity fell a seasonally adjusted 3% in December, clouding the improvement in the GDP of the previous month and closing the year downwards, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
This is how it arises from Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) of the BCU, breaking the trend of recent months. The figure represents a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year and pushes down the final 2023 GDP data. In any case, the trend-cycle It remains positive, in the order of 0.2%, although revised downwards from 0.5% in November.
Projecting the data of the indicator that provides a measure of the evolution of the country’s economic activity in the short term, an improvement of 1.5% year-on-year in GDP is expected in the fourth quarter, according to CPA economist Ferrere, Nicolás Cichevski.
According to their analysis, GDP would have increased by 0.1% during 2023, meeting the forecasts for a meager growth.
An improvement in economic activity is expected by 2024
Beyond this information, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) forecasts an increase of around 3.5% of GDP for 2024, with a dynamic labor market and inflation within the target range.
In turn, the minister Azucena Arbeleche Days ago, he exposed the improvement in economic activity, which ended 3.6% more than in 2019.
Added to this are the projections that the Ceres Leading Index (ILC), which has been in a growth phase for four consecutive months, after 0.2% in January.
It is worth highlighting that the ILC works as a predictor of the level of activity, so that what is expected is an improvement during 2024 where positive factors linked to the end of the drought and the reduction of exchange difference with Argentina, as well as the promotion of the full operation of UPM 2.
Source: Ambito
